BlackBook - Saturday, 17 September 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 17 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
CAULFIELD - Race 2
#3 LASCARS will be peaking third up having finished 2nd to Giga Kick and What You Need in his first two runs this preparation after being gelded. He had a tick over jump out in Heat 9 on Aug 26, winning with ease as he cruised to and through the line with D Oliver on board. A maiden third up would be the ideal scenario and expect him to be hard to beat.
Following his jump out win on Aug 26 ahead of Bellinger, #4 PORT ALBERT took out Heat 2 on Sep 9 ahead of the very speedy Philosopher and It’sourtime in the fastest time of the morning. It looked like D Oliver was on board here, jumping cleanly to get a good spot forward along the rail and go to the line under a hold, even going on with it past the line. He has handy form from his debut prep having 3rd on debut at Caulfield in the Redoute’s Choice Stakes before finishing 2nd to the undefeated Hell Hound, but has had the key gear change of now being a gelding and on the back of these 2x jump out wins, this son of Sooboog can make a winning return.
CAULFIELD - Race 9
#9 IT’SOURTIME could not be travelling better ahead of his return. The 5yo gelding closed super on Sep 2 with his work past the line clearly his best work, backing that up in Heat 2 on Sep 9 where he was bolting for a run in behind the leaders in Philosopher and Port Albert as they clocked the fastest time of the morning in the process. Looks in super order.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Caulfield, Race 2
PORT ALBERT on top from LASCARS - we can back both our runners for even returns at $6+.
#3 LASCARS (1) - J Cummings
He's clearly been a tab unlucky running into some smart ones in Giga Kick and What You Need, so it certainly wouldn't surprise to see him win here but it looks another nice race with plenty of chances. D Oliver jumping off to ride Xtravagant Star isn't a good sign, but J Kah is a handy replacement. Will be in the finish.
#4 PORT ALBERT (6) - N Ryan
Loved his jump outs and he's been gelded, so expect plenty of improvement this prep. As mentioned above, this is a nice race with plenty of chances - expecting him to be running a nice race though and he's our top pick.
Caulfield, Race 9
#9 IT'SOURTIME (6) - D O'Brien
He could not have jumped out any better. He's got a good record first up (3:2-1-0) and at the distance (5:2-1-1), so he looks very well placed to make a winning return here - nice E/W bet.
Last Updated: 8:28am on Saturday, 17th September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
686x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 217x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.22 WIN $2.30 PLC
985x runners | 229x winners (23%) & 271x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.43 WIN $3.05 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):