Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 18 June 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
FLEMINGTON - Race 3
#4 FAIRY SPIRIT was 2nd on May 10 prior to winning a previous May 24 jump out over 800m in the second fastest time of the morning, going one better as he stepped up to 1000m in Heat 2 on June 8, winning in the fastest time of the morning. He was ridden cold out of the barriers, taken to a clear last by a good 6L+ but had a superior turn of foot than these as he exploded down the middle of the track to win. He’s ready to go to the races now and expect him to be competitive.
DONALD - Race 2
Lovely win by the 3yo filly #10 FIRMITY, showing nice gate speed to take up the lead in Heat 13 on May 23 and just cruising to the line to record an easy win in her first jump out back. She wanted to lay in in the straight to find the fence, but once given a slight push by the jockey, she straightened up and hit the line. First up last prep over 1400m she was 2nd to a race fit Van Roy (who won a BM64 next start), gapping 3rd by 2.5L with some nice enough form with 4th and 6th winning their next start. Doubt we get much of a price for a Lindsey Smith runner, but one to monitor.
DONALD - Race 6
Another win for #2 SAN MARINO who is travelling very well ahead of his return. He won a jump out at Horsham over 800m on May 24 just ahead of Great Boulder (who then ran 4th in a MDN first up), but his win in Heat 9 on June 2 over the 900m was certainly the most impressive, clocking the fastest time of the morning ahead of talented 3yo The Front Bar. He’s had the 8x starts for 1x win and 2x placings but he thrives first up with a record of 2: 1-1-0 - first up last preparation he was 2nd in an 1100m BM64. He’s 56-rated, so a BM58 first up would be ideal.
*finished a very close 2nd in a jump out on Wednesday (Jun 15) at Burrumbeet over 700m
DONALD - Race 7
We mentioned #4 MAUSER after a May 5 jump out when he finished 2nd between Zaratite and Zazster (since 3rd and 4th in BM58’s) who were both mid-prep. He was given a 5-week freshen up, returning to win Heat 4 on June 8 over the 1000m on the synthetic track by a big margin. As mentioned after his last jump out, he’s had the 12x starts for only 1x win and 3x placings, but he has only recently been gelded (ahead of last prep) where he was 2nd and then 3rd in BM58’s before bleeding in both nostrils (clear forgive run). Keep an eye out for him first up, he might be worth a spec at a big price in a BM58.
Confidence - Comments
Flemington, Race 3
#4 FAIRY SPIRIT (1) - J Sadler
Tough race to debut in, but JO's have been nice and looks a small E/W chance. Just might lack that race experience and fitness here.
Donald, Race 2
#10 FIRMITY (4) - L Smith
Donald, Race 6
#2 SAN MARINO (4) - B & A McKnight
Goes well 1UP and had another tick over jump out on Wednesday (only 3 days ago) - should go well here.
Donald, Race 7
#4 MAUSER (13) - J Edwards
Wanted to spec him at a big price, so not keen to play ~$4 with barrier 13 of 15. If he was $10+, maybe a small spec, but not at the current price.
Last Updated: 8:28am on Saturday, 18th June 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
666x runners | 199x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.30 WIN $2.31 PLC
847x runners | 190x winners (22%) & 231x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $13.06 WIN $3.13 PLC
Recommend having a read of the below from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
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Confidence levels will be as follows:
Low = not keen to bet.
Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).
Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.
High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.
Special = very keen, should be winning.
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