BlackBook - Saturday, 15 October 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 15 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.


NEWCASTLE - Race 3

#6 WONDEREACH (5) - M Smith

WONDEREACH is clearly a nice horse. We mentioned him after his Sep 6 win, a super bit of work over the 750m where he was totally dominate and clocked really slick time, quicker than Rainbiel that day. He proved that that win wasn’t a fluke by winning Heat 8 on Sep 20 in 49.65s, the clear fastest time of the morning ahead of Ancestry’s 50.10s and above our overall average of 49.89s despite it being a Heavy track. He’s got a no fuss racing pattern which is attractable, leading in both of his jump outs and while there may be queries on whether he’s just a jump and run horse or not, he’s doing so in slick time under no pressure and we’ll be happy to find out on debut. A $55k purchase from the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale Highway Session back in 2021, he’s a smart gelding and keen to follow.

Everyone is probably sick of us mentioning WONDEREACH so we’ll keep this shorter but he just keeps on impressing. After bolting in the 2x Pakenham jump outs, he has made his way back to Sydney and won Trial 13 on Oct 7, a 740m synthetic Warwick Farm trial, by 4.43L in the third fastest time of the morning, only 0.37s slower than Eduardo earlier so he’s absolutely flying. Expecting him to be very hard to beat on debut, whether that be VIC or NSW but he’ll be $1.50 in VIC so hoping NSW in case they miss his VIC jump outs…


NEWCASTLE - Race 4

OTHER

#6 BLACK IRIS was superb in Trial 12 on Sep 9. In a small field, the 3yo filly sat midfield throughout but wide before going to the outside fence and closing super to finish a close 2nd despite being under no pressure from James McDonald who has been on for both of her trials, the other being on Jul 22 when also closing superbly behind Jewellery, who’s a talented filly herself. Definite watch on this filly for her debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Newcastle, Race 3

#6 WONDEREACH (5) - M Smith

High.

A 900m race at Newcastle with barrier 6 is the perfect debut race. He's had the three jump outs, all huge wins over 740m-800m, so the 900m is perfect (wish we had these distances for some horses in VIC lol).

We'd be surprised if he lost this - very keen.

Newcastle, Race 4

#6 BLACK IRIS (9) - J Cummings

Medium.

We had KAZOU as well but she's since been scratched, which leaves us with this filly.

She trialled well prior to the debut where she had excuses, travelling 3-4 wide throughout before going down by >1L. She'll taken plenty of improvement from that and will give a big sight here. She's now the one to beat post-scratchings and happy to be with her - think $2.50+ is a fair price.

Last Updated: 7:42am on Saturday, 15zth October 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

689x runners | 210x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.21 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

1027x runners | 242x winners (24%) & 281x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.29 WIN $3.04 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB