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BlackBook - Saturday, 15 July 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 15 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Flemington, Race 1

#11 ILLATIVE (10) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

BlackBook jump out comments:

The talented and well bred ILLATIVE is certainly back and again ready to go the races, backing up a very quiet but good Jun 19 jump out with a very easy win in Heat 11 on Jun 26 as she clocked the fourth fastest time of the morning in the process. We know she’s a half-sister to the group performed Dragon Leap and Illation so adding that to some really good jump outs, she’ll certainly be going very close on debut but if she heads to a country maiden, she’ll be awfully hard to beat.

Murtoa, Race 1

#2 ESSENTRIC NATURE (9) - P Preusker

BlackBook jump out comments:

A big win by ESSENTRIC NATURE in nice time with his work in Heat 9 on Jul 3, the 2yo colt leading throughout after showing some nice gate speed to get to the lead with ease. The 2yo colt did a bit wrong early but once he got going and was put under pressure, he really extended late to open up a huge margin. He ran 2nd to subsequent winner Coco Sun in his first jump out and is a full-brother of the Group 3 winning Addictive Nature. One to monitor on debut.

Last Updated: 8:45am AEDT on Saturday, 17th July 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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