BlackBook - Saturday, 15 January 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 15 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


FLEMINGTON - Race 1

#7 ENGLISH RIVIERA (7) - T & C McEvoy

The $260k 2yo filly ENGLISH RIVIERA clocked the fastest 800m time of the morning as she took out Heat 3 on Dec 14. An impressive first jump out as she went to the line hard held having sat outside the leader on speed throughout. She looks very comfortable and looked to move like a filly with some talent.

Mentioned after a smart Dec 14 jump out win in the fastest time of the morning, ENGLISH RIVIERA was back at it again with a big win in Heat 3 on Jan 5 while again clocking a really slick 800m time, the second fastest of the morning and only 0.1s off the fastest. The 2yo filly jumped from the widest barrier and stuck wide, travelling under a hold until the 300m mark when she was given a push and put up lengths on the field in a matter of seconds. This was a smart win and she’s a smart filly. Expect her to be going well on debut.


OTHER

Two 2yo colts worth keeping in mind for their debut following two jump out wins. The Moody colt #6 WATERWORLD was ridden out late to win Heat 10 on Jan 5 in the third fastest time of the morning at 49.15s while the Stokes colt TYPICAL YOU cruised to win Heat 11 on Jan 5, but clocked a slow time of 51.29s.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Flemington, Race 1 - ENGLISH RIVIERA

Nice little 2yo maiden here with a couple of potentially above average 2YO's in ENGLISH RIVIERA ($51 into $11 for Blue Diamond) and MAXIMILLIUS ($26 into $15 for Blue Diamond), plus WATERWORLD might go alright.


ENGLISH RIVIERA's latest jump out was super (!) impressive. Really liked the way he put a gap on the field and showed an electric turn of foot, and he ran really slick time in the process. You won't see many put a space on them like that in jump outs. Quite like the fact he's jumped out at Terang too with the massive straight with his debut being up the straight at Flemington.


MAXIMILLIUS jumped out well but the times weren't anything great. Did look to be a nice mover though.


Think ENGLISH RIVIERA's jump outs are too good to be ignored and with him being both a 'highlight' BlackBook and a Star Performer on Twitter, we're happy to back him. Expecting him to run well.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we're putting more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


Total outlay is 2.00 units.


Flemington, Race 1

ENGLISH RIVIERA ~ 2.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +29.19 units at Recommend Price | +62.37 units at Betfair SP


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