BlackBook - Saturday, 15 April 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 15 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

WERRIBEE - Race 3

OTHER

Always mindful of the leaders in jump outs and while #3 CHICALOTE has led and won both of his jump outs, he looks quite speedy. He won Heat 8 on Apr 6 in the fastest time of the morning travelling nicely along the rail and holding off Over Shady and The Duke Of Dubai with a big gap to 4th, both of whom go alright. His previous jump out on Mar 24 saw him do it nicely along the rail as well but he was given a reminder at the top of the straight, responding. A 3yo gelded son of Frosted, he’s doing enough at the jump outs to be going well on debut.

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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners	Confidence - Comments
Werribee, Race 3
#3 CHICALOTE (8) - J Cummings	Low/Medium. His jump outs were super, especially the latest one in good company where he was good late and strong through the line. He beat home Over Shady in that jump out who has since ran 2nd in a BM58. Liam Riordan actually rode in the JO's and is on here for raceday, a positive sign. An obvious query on the wet track with him drawn a touch wide here with barrier 8 of 9, but there should be a little bit of speed inside him so he'll likely camp just off it and look to come over the top late. It's a solid maiden, but happy to be with him here and betting - playing ½ now at the ~$3, and the other ½ SP.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Sandown, Race 3 #8 PRIVATE JUMBO (14) - M Huglin	BlackBook jump out comments: Castillian was certainly an eye catcher in Heat 5 on Apr 5 as he closed really nicely from the back to finish 2nd but it was the winner that’s a horse to following, the 2-start maiden in PRIVATE JUMBO who got a lovely run trailing Silver Up throughout before being put under pressure in the straight and closing nicely over the top to win. We were keen to keep an eye on him following his previous Mar 21 jump out alongside some nice horses so this trial over 990m is very encouraging and he should be quite forward now first up. He can go one better this preparation and finally break the maiden.
Morphetville, Race 6 #5 GRAND POPE (10) - S Fliedner	BlackBook jump out comments: A change of stables for GRAND POPE having been bought for $60k at the Inglis sales at the start of the year. A 5yo gelding that’s talented but hasn’t always had things go his way where a change scenery and race strength might do him a world of good. His talents were on full display in Heat 6 on Apr 3 as he showed that tremendous turn of foot to fly home and win by several lengths when pushed out. A BM64 at a country track first up would be perfect!

Sandown, Race 3

#8 PRIVATE JUMBO (14) - M Huglin

BlackBook jump out comments:

Castillian was certainly an eye catcher in Heat 5 on Apr 5 as he closed really nicely from the back to finish 2nd but it was the winner that’s a horse to following, the 2-start maiden in PRIVATE JUMBO who got a lovely run trailing Silver Up throughout before being put under pressure in the straight and closing nicely over the top to win. We were keen to keep an eye on him following his previous Mar 21 jump out alongside some nice horses so this trial over 990m is very encouraging and he should be quite forward now first up. He can go one better this preparation and finally break the maiden.

Morphetville, Race 6

#5 GRAND POPE (10) - S Fliedner

BlackBook jump out comments:

A change of stables for GRAND POPE having been bought for $60k at the Inglis sales at the start of the year. A 5yo gelding that’s talented but hasn’t always had things go his way where a change scenery and race strength might do him a world of good. His talents were on full display in Heat 6 on Apr 3 as he showed that tremendous turn of foot to fly home and win by several lengths when pushed out. A BM64 at a country track first up would be perfect!

Last Updated: 8:54am AEDT on Saturday, 15th April 2023.

STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.

Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".

This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.

We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart

.pdf

Download PDF • 920KB