BlackBook - Saturday, 14 January 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 14 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Flemington, Race 1 #7 TOM KITTEN (1) - J Cummings | BlackBook jump out comments: Very slow time for the morning but TOM KITTEN did it very well as the 2yo colt cruised to victory in Heat 10 on Dec 23. He went straight to the front and nothing else ever had a chance, he just cruised to the line and did it effortlessly. Super jump out despite that time. No bets recommended. |
Flemington, Race 1 #8 VEECEE (7) - C Maher & D Eustace | BlackBook jump out comments: A $750k purchase, VEECEE has now strung together two nice jump out wins ahead of his debut. The 2yo Capitalist colt cruised to the line in a Dec 19 jump out while all those around him were pushed out in a nice bit of work. He backed that up in Heat 8 on Jan 5, pushing forward to lead before kicking away late as we was slightly given a couple of reminders. These colours with Maher & Eustace are certainly a good combo and this colt looks like he could be another for the combo. No bets recommended. |
Kembla Grange, Race 1 #1 NASDAQ DUBAI (10) - G Ryan & S Alexiou | BlackBook trial comments: Not a huge fan of the jump, lead and win style of wins in NSW, but NASDAQ DUBAI did it the tough way in Trial 12 on Dec 29 and did so in nice time. The 4yo jumped from the widest barrier, but just slowly edged his way forward to lead and then was put under pressure in the straight, likewise the rest of those chasing him but he was too strong, even opening up a margin late which is what you want to see when put under pressure. He debuted back in February 2021, so he’s had almost 2 years off and will almost certainly have another trial before resuming, but this was a nice bit of work. No bets recommended - can't back him first up after 101 weeks on the back of only 1x trial... let alone at ~$2. |
Gold Coast, Race 2 #1 GETTY (4) - P & P Snowden | BlackBook trial comments: A $320k Capitalist colt, GETTY was a solid winner of Trial 5 on Dec 29 over 900m where he sat outside the leader and when put under pressure in the straight, he responded and put a little gap on the leader. Time wise, it was slightly below average but still a nice bit of work for this 2yo colt’s first career trial. No bets recommended - not keen to get involved with him only having the 1x trial at below ave time. |
Rosehill, Race 1 #12 STEEL CITY (6) - C Maher & D Eustace | BlackBook trial comments: A half-sister to September Run and My Yankee Girl, STEEL CITY was super winning Trial 10 on Dec 19. The 2yo daughter of Merchant Navy was away quickly to lead throughout but did her best work late, sprinting away to open up an easy 3.69L win in slick time. A $700k Magic Millions purchase, she went super in her first career trial. September Run’s little sister STEEL CITY had to show some fight late in Trial 8 on Dec 29, which she did as she put the head down to win and as a result clocked slick time for the morning, the second fastest of the morning. She was a very slick winner of a Dec 19 trial as well and looks in good order ahead of her debut, albeit expecting a short quote. No bets recommended - we were considering a play but she's just too short and she can win without us - she's the one to beat but just not fully convinced so not going to bet. |
Last Updated: 8:01am (QLD) on Saturday, 14th January 2023.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 708x runners | 218x winners (31%) & 227x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.06 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1139x runners | 280x winners (25%) & 315x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.07 WIN $2.99 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 47x runners | 28x wins (60%) & 13x placings (87%)
Medium Confidence: 98x runners | 40x wins (41%) & 30x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 93x runners | 21x wins (23%) & 28x placings (53%)
Low Confidence: 19x runners | 4x wins (21%) & 5x placings (47%)
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB