BlackBook - Saturday, 13 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 13 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


DUNKELD - Race 2

OTHER

#5 MR PRISTINE has consistently shown a stack of speed in his jump outs and this certainly hasn’t changed despite his change of stables to Andrew Bobbin, bolting in Heat 11 on Oct 19 by a massive margin. Last seen in a Mar 9 official trial, finishing 3rd when leading throughout with the horses who overran him being Arroance (went on to win a MDN and BM64) and Don’t Doubt Nic (who went on to win a MDN by 2L). Only his first jump out for the new stable, so certainly one to keep an eye on.


CRANBOURNE - Race 1

OTHER

In the well-known A Kheir colours, #12 YOU ESS ESS ARE won Heat 1 on Nov 8 after being heavily restrained in the early stages but closing nicely under minimal riding. The 3yo Russian Revolution filly had the two 600m/650m jump outs in early October, also travelling well in those and is one to follow.


CRANBOURNE - Race 9

OTHER

#13 STAREDOWN (red) was under a ridiculous hold throughout Heat 9 on Oct 11, defeating impressive maiden winner Nabbed. He was never allowed to fully extend and was clearly a class above this filed. One to keep an eye on depending on where he pops up, most likely another jump out and then a 1400m BM64 first up.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Cranbourne, Race 1 - YOU ESS ESS ARE

He's been the clear stand out from the Jump Outs for us and if he runs up to them, he should win this. He debuts at the home track with Brett Prebble on board and barrier 3, which is a lovely draw for him especially at Cranbourne over the 1000m. Hard to trust the stable though...


EL PADRINO looked good on the same day as YOU ESS ESS ARE, clocking 48.58s for his jump out win vs 47.91s. He looks to be the main danger. JAMARRA looked to move alright as did GREYT MUMMA and VALENCONI who jumped out together at Mornington.


YOU ESS ESS ARE on top from EL PADRINO and then GREYT MUMMA and JAMARRA. Market pretty much has them spot on in our opinion. The 2YO's this year (besides Coolangatta in Sydney) have been only fair at best. Big query on how any of them will handle the track as well... happy to stay out and watch with no bets.


Cranbourne, Race 9 - STAREDOWN

Resumes here in a 1300m BM70 in a Saturday race, so we're happy to let him go around with no bets but he's one to include in the Quaddie as his jump outs were super.


Dunkeld, Race 2 - MR PRISTINE

APSARA is going to be very hard to beat after two 2nd's in two runs this preparation. Extreme Emotion was 3rd in her latest run, since running a very close 2nd at Bendigo on Wednesday (as we know...). That form certainly holds up for a Dunkeld maiden and she'll be peaking fitness wise third up as she drops back to 1000m now. Her two runs this prep have rated +3.7 and +5.5, which are both the best last start benchmark ratings of anyone in this field. She just needs to run to one of those to win this.


MR PRISTINE has only had the one jump out prior to his debut here, so we have a slight query on fitness but he looks to have a stack of early speed so barrier 3 will suit. He's technically on debut but was in that race (here) that was called off due to it being ran over 1200m instead of 1100m (not sure how that happens) - he led that day and died over the concluding stages but the race was 1200m (listed as 1100m) and this is 1000m. Can see on the RV Stewards Twitter he has been gelded, which will have occurred since that run. Expect him to lead here and be the one to chase down.


APSARA is going to be very hard to beat but MR PRISTINE is a big danger. At $1.70 and $2.30 this morning, they're both too short to be playing and we're happy to sit this out with no bets - won't miss much if either win at those prices.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

No bets. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall: +3.38 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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