BlackBook - Saturday, 13 August 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 13 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY


CAULFIELD - Race 6

#12 WALTZ ON BY (2) - P Moody

WALTZ ON BY on flying at the jump outs ahead of her return. We mentioned her after her Jul 12 win over 750m where she led throughout and opened up a big margin over the final ~200m. She backed that up with a win in Heat 1 on Aug 3 over the 750m, cruising on speed throughout behind Squizzy Mizzy (who won a BM58 by 1.5L only 5-weeks ago) before then showing that superb turn of foot to get past her with ease while Millane was ridden out in 3rd and couldn’t keep up. She clocked 43.50s, which was 1.65s quicker than the next quickest time on the day and the second fastest time we have recorded for the 750m at Pakenham (Synthetic), behind only Oxley Road over 90x jump outs. If she heads to a mid-week maiden to get that maiden victory out of the way, she’ll be very awfully hard to beat. She’s very talented and jump outs could not have been any better ahead of her resumption. She’s $26 for the Thousand Guienas, a race her mum won…


#15 LOMANDRA (7) - M, W & J Hawkes

We mentioned LOMANDRA following her 700m Jul 6 trial where she went to the line with Snitcat. She was a $900k Inglis Australian Easter Yearling purchase being by Not A Single Doubt and a half-sister to Blue Diamond winner Tagaloa, so there will be plenty of expectations for this filly when she does make it to the track but she’s trending in the right direction at the trials. Backing up that first trial, she stepped up to 900m in Trial 11 on Jul 29 and finished 2nd to the Group performed Lady Laguna where she was going on with it past the line. She’s travelling super and with her breeding, expecting her to go super on debut.


CAULFIELD - Race 9

OTHER

#12 I COULD DO BETTER looks like he he couldn’t be doing better ahead of his resumption for his new stable. Following a super jump out on Jul 14 where he closed super from the back to win, the 7yo gelding sat closer to the speed throughout Heat 6 on Aug 4 where he then put a huge gap on them in the straight to record a big victory. His first up record reads 5:3-0-0, so he’s a big watch first up for Maddie Raymond on the back of these jump outs.


KEMBLA GRANGE - Race 2

OTHER

#5 IGNACIO has flown late in both trials so far, the first over 740m on Jul 22 when 3rd and again in Trial 14 on Jul 29 where the 2yo Redoute’s Choice colt came from last and hit the line with a lot of pace. He was pushed out by Nash, but showed a nice turn of foot and no doubt if he settled closer that he would’ve finished closer. Hopefully he doesn’t settle too far back at the races as he does have a motor.


KEMBLA GRANGE - Race 6

OTHER

#10 HEADWALL looks a nice horse. He won impressively over 900m on debut a month ago, so he had some race fitness but the way in which he closed into 2nd place in Trial 4 on Aug 2 over 1050m was super impressive, making ground on the ridden out Group 3 winning gelding in Tiger Legend - they clocked the second fastest time of the morning in the process too. He’ll win some more races in his career, sooner rather than later as well.

 
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Caulfield, Race 6

#12 WALTZ ON BY (2) - P Moody

Medium.

It's hard to have a lot of confidence first up in a Group 3, but we think this is a very talented filly. Her jump outs have been absolutely super and very happy to back her here on the back of those.

Also having a crack at her in the Thousand Guineas.

​#15 LOMANDRA (7) - M, W & J Hawkes

Low/Medium.

At $21+, we can have a small bet on her to breakeven + some profit on our main bet on Waltz On By.

Caulfield, Race 9

#12 I COULD DO BETTER (14) - M Raymond

Low/Medium.

Goes well first up (5:3-0-0) and likes the distance (8:4-0-0) but hasn't won for over a year and this BM84 at Caulfield on a Saturday is a bit harder than previous races. Can have a small bet and we'll be playing late while looking for a drift.

Kembla Grange, Race 2

#5 IGNACIO (4) - C Waller

Medium.

He was smashed in early betting, opening up at $4.20 on TAB into the $2.30 he is this morning. This looks a winnable race, but slightly put off by the price. In saying that, he's the main winning chance so we have to be with him, but playing late in the hope he gets out.

Kembla Grange, Race 6

#10 HEADWALL (3) - M Smith

Medium.

Super debut and an even better trial since. He looks a very very good winning chance here - he should go very close to winning this and then we expect him to be going onto better races than this in the future.

BLACKBOOK WATCHLIST

The below aren't #BlackBook runners or recommended bets (unless stated), but are those we have notes on and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing (i.e. quaddie's etc).

Caulfield, Race 4

#2 LADY OF HONOUR (2) - B & JD Hayes

Jump out win on Jul 29 was super, likewise the Jul 15 win prior and she is certainly flying ahead of her return here. She was undefeated last prep, her last run a Listed win at Caulfield over 1400m ahead of Decent Raine who has since ran 5th and 4th in Group 2's. She's a nice mare with some potential - having a bet here.

Last Updated: 8:31am on Saturday, 13th August 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

673x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 212x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

939x runners | 212x winners (23%) & 259x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.71 WIN $3.10 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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