Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 11 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
YARRA VALLEY - Race 1
#9 MUISCA has now put together two nice jump outs, winning a Dec 13 jump out before running on really well from last to finish 2nd in Heat 3 on Dec 27 behind Dio, who’s certainly a lot more experienced than her. The 3yo filly looks to have come back in good order following her one-run debut prep that saw her finish 4th as a $3.20 SP second favourite, albeit on a Heavy9 track where she led so she may be looking for those dry tracks. We want to be following her into her first up run this prep.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Yarra Valley, Race 1
#9 MUISCA (2) - J Bridgman
She was a touch disappointing first up but that was up the straight at Flemington in a solid maiden.
She gets the tongue tie on here, which is a positive and signals that she may of had an issue first up.
Not entirely sure about the 3kg claiming apprentice on board but she does have barrier 2 so at Yarra Valley will be hoping she goes to the front and proves hard to chase down.
No doubt that KING'S CHAMBER is one of the ones to beat now third up, but he has barrier 14 of 14 and at this track, it's a disadvantage. BARRON is the other having jumped out next to subsequent winner Our Warrior, but was ridden out just to get close to him.
Happy to have a bet at the $10+ available for this filly, think she has talent that she hasn't shown yet on raceday.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Sandown, Race 4
#17 SOJU (1) - S Zahra
BlackBook jump out comments:
It’s hard not to mention SOJU following her second jump out win. She won a Jan 27 jump out by a huge margin in the fastest time of the morning where she went straight to the front and gave nothing else a chance, similar to her work in Heat 6 on Feb 4 where she also led and steamed to the line late, clocking the third fastest time of the morning. She’s a daughter of Capitalist that was purchased for $100k with her half-sister by Extreme Choice recently being purchased for $360, she looks very speedy and likely is suited by a 1000m race on debut.
Sandown, Race 5
#12 RICH FORTUNE (13) - J Hunter
BlackBook jump out comments:
Impressive first up winner RICH FORTUNE was back at the jump outs following a 5-week freshen up, taking out Heat 3 on Jan 25 with ease. She broke her maiden first up in a BM70 for us in a super performance and she’s certainly one we can follow through the grades.
No bet - very tough race, she looks an E/W chance.
Last Updated: 8:07am AEDT on Saturday, 11th February 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):