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BlackBook - Saturday, 11 December 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 11 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


FLEMINGTON - Race 1

OTHER

He had the race fitness having finished 3rd at Ballarat on debut only 10 days ago, but #1 EPIC CENTRE bolted in Heat 3 on Dec 1 by a huge margin and clocked the fourth fastest time of the day in the process.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Flemington, Race 1 - EPIC CENTRE

The debutants all jumped out at Werribee on Monday. STUPENDO won Heat 4 and clocked 48.72s, while the Heat 8 was won in 48.94s and featured HELL HATH NO FURY (2nd), VA VIA (4th) and KIN (5th). Thought HELL HATH NO FURY was the pick of these four --> see below for replays.


EPIC CENTRE's jump out in between runs was super though and think he can run a much improved race.


Not a race we're getting involved in, but think HELL HATH NO FURY or EPIC CENTRE run well here.


Kembla Grange, Race 3 - TWILIGHT AFFAIR

Our original #BlackBook comments were as follows:

  • Nov 23 (Randwick) - she will go to the front on debut and be very hard to beat - three trials now, the latest two over 1000m+ and both of them nice wins, even her first over 742m was a nice win - won’t be short of fitness and can trust the stable - follow.

Think this 4yo mare is going to be very hard to beat here. W Costin rides for Waterhouse & Bott who strike at 27.4% with a +15.9% POT from 190 runners. She's drawn barrier 3 here and there doesn't look to be much speed, so expect her to go forward and take up the lead and be very hard to chase down. Three trials is a very good base, especially three trial wins with the latest two being over 1045m and 1050m and debuting here over 1200m. Handled a Soft7 track well in the latest, but there will be a query on the Heavy10 here.


The best last start rating is INORDINATE OPINION at +6.8, followed by SABLENKA at +8.7. SABLENKA probably looks the main danger but it won't take a superstar performance to win this as a result.


Going to have a 1.00 unit low confidence bet, just due to the Heavy8 track and it being NSW which isn't our full specialty. Want to have something on though.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 1.00 unit(s).


Kembla Grange, Race 3

TWILIGHT AFFAIR ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $2.60 (TAB & more sat 8:26am)


Overall: +7.76 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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