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BlackBook - Saturday, 10 December 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 10 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SANDOWN - Race 1

OTHER

#8 SERASANA could be a nice filly. She was away horribly in a 650m jump out on Nov 7 but mustered early speed to boot up along the rail and win as she was just too speedy in the end. She stepped up to 1000m in Heat 3 on Nov 22 while also going against the older horses where she wasn’t away great but certainly better, settling to the rear of the field out wide under Mick Dee before she came out to the middle of the track at the top of the straight, was put under pressure and responded to close really well and especially so over the final 100m to finish a close 3rd. She ran past the 5yo Apache Star with ease while taking ground off the winner in Okay To Pay, both of whom are really good form references for an un-raced 2yo. A $400k Snitzel colt being out of Twilight Royale (a winner of the VRC Sires as a 2yo), she moved smartly here and love that it was against the older horses and over 1000m where she responded to riding. Happy to follow her into her debut.


RANDWICK - Race 5

#8 FACILE (5) - G Ryan & S Alexiou

A smart first trial from the 2yo filly FACILE. She wasn’t away great but did show lovely early speed to take up the lead along the rail, but it was her work in the straight when she was asked for a little bit of an effort, opening up a big gap on the field very easily to record an impressive 4.41L win while clocking the fifth fastest time we have recorded for trials between 801m and 810m. If you watch past the line too, she held this margin on the field and clearly was still going on with it. A daughter of Trapeze Artist that was a $420k purchase, she was super here.

The $420k Trapeze Artist filly in FACILE is smart. We mentioned her following a Nov 18 trial over 801m at Warwick Farm where she showed that lovely early speed to lead but it was her work late when asked for an effort, extending to win by 4.41L in the fifth fastest time we have recorded. She was just as good in Trial 13 on Nov 29 at Canterbury, showing that gate speed again to get an easy lead along the rail and just was way too speedy, even for the winner of the Gimcrack in Platinum Jubilee who was 3.38L back in 2nd place. This was over 898m and she did it in the fourth fastest time of the morning, so she’s got the visual and times to back up the performances. Very keen to follow her on debut.


KEMBLA GRANGE - Race 6

OTHER

#2 HULM certainly has a bit of talent about him. He was quite impressive in his first trial on Nov 14 over 740m on the synthetic track, traveling strongly out wide under a hold from James McDonald before letting down in the straight like a nice horse, clocking the second fastest time of the morning but clearly doing his best work past the line as he opened up a huge gap. James McDonald stuck with this Written Tycoon colt here as he stepped up to 1030m in Trial 2 on Nov 24, where he was a bit slowly away and did a bit wrong in the early stages as he crept up to the lead out wide, wanting to go on with it and overracing. Despite this, it was his work over the final 200m that was slick again, responding to the riding and extending to win as he attacked the line and again doing his best work past the line. Like the way he moves and happy to follow him on debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sandown, Race 1

#8 SERASANA (3) - R Giffiths & M de Kock

Low/Medium.

Her starts are a bit of a worry, so hopefully she can begin better here than what she has been in her trials - if she had of polished up our start, we'd have been a bit more confident.

In saying that, she's jumped out just as well, if not better than anything else in the field so at $8+, happy to have a bet to find out. Can use the bonus back offers floating around.

Randwick, Race 5

​#8 FACILE (5) - G Ryan & S Alexiou

High.

Doubt we'll see many better trials from an un-raced 2yo and as a result, very happy to be with her here.


Hopefully a few of us took the $2+ available yesterday as she's been absolutely smashed now. If you're not on, wait till closer to the jump to try get $1.80-$2, but hard to bet if she's sub-$1.50.

Can even look at having a bet on the Golden Slipper at the $26 (Sportsbet)...

Kembla Grange, Race 6

#2 HULM (8) - P & P Snowden

Medium.

His jump outs were really good, so a bit surprised at the price and think he starts closer to ~$2.50 than the ~$3.60 available now. Happy to be backing as a result, expecting a nice debut.


Windshadow is the obvious danger and has drawn well, but she's only had the 1x JO ahead of her debut here. She's the saver bet if you're wanting to do a saver.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Sandown, Race 6

#8 BELLE ET RICHE (3) - M Freedman

BlackBook jump out comments:

BELLE ET RICHE had the race fitness having ran 2nd in a BM78 at Ballarat, but she worked home super from last in Heat 4 on Dec 1 to finish 2nd by a big margin, but the leader was off and gone by the time she got into it. No doubt she’s got a win in her this prep.


No bet recommended.

Sandown, Race 9

#5 STAY IN TOUCH (11) - C Maher & D Eustace

BlackBook jump out comments:

STAY IN TOUCH is in super order ahead of her return, winning Heat 4 on Dec 1 where she led but gave a good kick in the straight to open a big margin on Belle Et Riche in nice time. She won a Nov 16 jump out over 900m as well ahead of Jennilala (since 5th in LR) and Sizzling Sonata (since 1st BM58), so she’s doing it very well ahead of her return.


No bet recommended.

Eagle Farm, Race 4

#2 EMPRESS OF WONDER (12) - A Neasham

BlackBook jump out comments:

EMPRESS OF WONDER has certainly improved from her debut 2nd to Charm Stone, taking Trial 14 on Nov 29 in impressive fashion as she sat leaders back before peeling out and showing a lovely turn of foot late to win very comfortably. She’ll be going very well wherever she goes next.


No bet recommended.

Last Updated: 7:49am on Saturday, 10th December 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 701x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 224x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.12 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1084x runners | 263x winners (24%) & 296x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $11.98 WIN $2.99 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 39x runners | 24x wins (62%) & 9x placings (85%)

Medium Confidence: 76x runners | 32x wins (42%) & 19x placings (67%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 68x runners | 12x wins (18%) & 23x placings (51%)

Low Confidence: 12x runners | 4x wins (33%) & 3x placings (58%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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