BlackBook - Saturday, 1 October 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Saturday, 1 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
MURTOA - Race 2
Despite being under some riding, the I Am Invincible colt in #9 GARZA BLANCA closed well in Heat 8 on Aug 9, getting nabbed late on the line by the stakes placed Wee Nessy. He didn’t have much room in the straight in his first jump out on Jul 25, but he managed to get a lovely run up the fence in this trial and responded to Ethan Brown’s urges as he looks to be a good sized colt. He was a $700k Magic Millions purchase back in 2021, being out of a half-sister to the star stallion Starspangledbanner, so certainly some expectations on this colt ahead of his debut as a 3yo.
MURTOA - Race 3
We mentioned #13 LUNAR MODULE following her Aug 2 jump out where she was hard held in 2nd place behind French Fields where they clocked the second fastest time of the morning. We also mentioned that she’ll have another jump out where she was pushed out, which occurred on Aug 11 but she went backwards and was really poor, potentially due to the track which looked in ordinary condition. She clearly had an issue and was given 5-weeks off, returning in Heat 10 on Sep 12 on the grass where she led before being pushed out in the straight and opening up a big margin on the field over the 1000m, a lovely bit of work in nice time. If we can forgive her middle jump out, her other two were slick and she can go well on debut on the back of those.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Murtoa, Race 2
#9 GARZA BLANCA (9) - C Maher & D Eustace
Cheating a little here as he is second up but we have to mention him again now that he drops from a Sandown maiden to a Murtoa maiden... he had a JO on Sep 12 ahead of Marxist (since 2nd MDN) that was super, the tongue tie goes on and can't imagine this stable taking a $700k colt to Murtoa on a Saturday not to win... form from debut run is good, he started a $4.60 SP fav that day too but probably didn't handle the Heavy track that day - all things equal, he really should just be winning a race like this.
Murtoa, Race 3
#13 LUNAR MODULE (3) - A Alexander
Archie Alexander said on radio that they're looking for the right race for her, which is why she's been scratched several times now. Looks like he's settled on this race and tend to agree, this looks a lovely kick off point for her and she's drawn lovely with barrier 3. She looks a good winning chance - can play E/W at the price.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Sha Tin, Race 2
#5 BIG ME (6) - C Fownes
He jumped out in Aus under 'BIG ME', featuring in our weekly review with our notes as followed:
BIG ME goes well. He only just won a jump out on Oct 11 on a very wet track but it was his slick win along the rail in Heat 11 on Oct 25 that has really caught the eye. He showed nice gate speed to kick up and lead, holding the rail throughout and hitting the line under his own steam but clearly having a bit on the rest of the field, winning in the fourth fastest 800m time of the morning. He moved well here, recording a nice win in slick time and looks to be above maiden grade. Keen to follow him into his debut.
He's trialled well in Hong Kong too, finishing 2nd to Victor The Winner (who won on debut for us) before winning his more recent trial. Worth a bet here!
Last Updated: 8:03am on Saturday, 1st October 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
687x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.23 WIN $2.30 PLC
1008x runners | 236x winners (23%) & 276x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.35 WIN $3.05 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):