BlackBook - Monday, 9 May 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 9 May 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
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KYNETON - Race 2
It was the slowest of the 1000m jump outs, but #4 GABSTAR showed a lovely turn of foot to get over the leaders to win Heat 18 on Apr 26. She’s resuming off a 10-week let up after a previous Feb 14 win, so it’s taking her a bit of time to get back to the races following her last start 4th to Adele Amour, Barb Raider and El Patroness, which is certainly very handy form now. Keeping an eye out for another jump out prior to her resuming.
KYNETON - Race 3
After being a beaten sub-$2 favourite in both runs this preparation, #1 ALONTRO has made the switch to the Ellerton yard, winning Heat 2 on Apr 22 in the second fastest time of the morning following a 6-week let-up as well. Not sure he’ll be a betting proposition first up for the new stable as he’s likely short, but worth keeping in mind for improvement as that switch may do him good (he’s still a colt though…).
Resuming from a 6-week let up after a very disappointing first up run as a gelding, #5 TALENT QUEST won Heat 8 on May 2 in the second fastest 800m time of the morning. He won a jump out prior to his resumption at Yarra Valley that saw him start $5.50 but only manage 7th, beaten 10.2L. As mentioned, he’s been given that freshen up and the blinkers went on in this heat which really looked to switch him on as he did it quite easily, holding off Bella Sorellina (who we were on first up when a beaten $1.65 favourite). Happy to follow him into his next run, his second as a gelding and likely his first with the blinkers on - think we will see some improvement.
Kyneton, Race 2 - GABSTAR
GABSTAR has some nice form on the board now from her 2x career starts in 2x different preps. On debut she finished 3rd of 6x runners to Zerelle, where Three Kings (2nd) won his next two starts (one being a Listed race) while 4th and 6th have both won since (5th is yet to run again). She was then 4th over 1400m to Adele Amour when behind Barb Raider (2nd) and El Patroness (3rd), both of whom are Group 1 horses.
She’s been given time, resuming here over a shorter 1212m with the tongue tie going on and now-Group 1 winning jockey Ethan Brown sticking and riding her here. Her 2x jump outs leading into this were slick and she’s more than capable of running well here. Her 2x career runs rated +8.4 and +4.8, where the highest rating of anyone in this field was Midivani with +3.6 when 3rd to Pagan last start but her scratching leaves WINTILLY with the best rating of +3.8, followed closely by GABSTAR.
Expecting GABSTAR to be hard to beat here and think the ~$3 is a nice enough price to look at, she seems more a ~$2.50 shot and should be running really well here.
Kyneton, Race 3 - TALENT QUEST
TALENT QUEST has started $3.90, $7, $4.40 and $5.50 in his last 4x runs, so the $8.50 earlier this morning looked a nice price to take but he's had some good market support this morning. He finally gets the blinkers on for the first time, where he went like a rocket in that jump out with them on. Drawn barrier 1 here, expect Carleen Hefel to not much around and take him to the front to lead and be the one to chase down. He can give a sight here first up.
ALONTRO recorded a nice jump out win but he's done so on a number of occasions and not brought it race day - he's hard to trust and at sub-$3, don't think he's a betting proposition and was happy to risk for a small play elsewhere.
Favourite is hard to beat but having a small play on TALENT QUEST - expecting a forward showing with the blinkers on and the handy barrier 1 draw. Going to play the SP as the ~$4.20 is on the short side and expecting a drift.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 2.50 units.
Kyneton, Race 2
GABSTAR ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $2.90 (TAB)
Kyneton, Race 3
TALENT QUEST ~ 1.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP (Betfair)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -0.61 units at Recommend Price | +32.91 units at Betfair SP
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