BlackBook - Monday, 8 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 8 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


MOE - Race 4

OTHER

The win of #9 MASTER FONTANA in Heat 14 on Oct 11 when clocking a very slick 59.37s was an impressive bit of work as the 3yo looks to return to the races, potentially as a gelding this time in. He debuted back in July on a Soft7 track over 1330m and was a bit disappointing despite only finishing 4.15L off Sunfall who then went on to win a BM70 and finish 3rd (by 3.5L) to Forgot You at Moonee Valley. Following a quiet Sep 27 800m jump out, he travelled up beautifully along the inside here to extend away when given a slight rev up to put lengths on the field quite easily. He looks to have a nice action, but may be one to follow as he gets over further being by a mare that got out over 2000m herself. Super jump out regardless.


MOE - Race 7

OTHER

#5 DUPIE DOLL was way too slick for Award Winner, with these two too slick for the rest of the field in Heat 2 on Nov 3. This 6yo mare did have the benefit of race fitness, having won a BM58 at St Arnaud on Oct 24, but she still did this well and wouldn’t mind seeing another country BM58 second up for the new Mark Stephenson stable.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Moe, Race 4 - MASTER FONTANA

The jump out prior to the return run was super, but he was a touch disappointing. Despite this, that run rates as the second best last start benchmark rating so he won't have to improve that much in order to be very competitive in this. Barrier 9 of 11 isn't ideal though, would've preferred him drawn in to get a softer run throughout.


He steps up from 1400m to 1628m here in a weaker race, which certainly suits. From his first up run, the winner ran the meetings fastest L200m at 11.58s while he ran 11.90s (third fastest in the race), so he was getting going late and did look a little one-paced so the 1600m+ will suit a lot more. He might even need further than 1600m.


Craig Newitt takes the ride with Tommy Stockdale on LITTLE BROTHER here instead with the blinkers going on for the first time. Newitt will hopefully get him more forward and closer to the speed from the wide barrier. No bets from us on him today, happy to let him go around - a win wouldn't shock, but not enough confidence to play.


Moe, Race 7 - DUPIE DOLL

Won well first up at St Arnaud, having this jump out in between runs and goes from 58.5kg to 60kg (after the claim) while sticking in BM58 grade but drops back in distance from 1100m to 1017m, draw's barrier 8 of 10 and this is a tougher race.


She'll go forward and a win certainly wouldn't shock, but happy to let her go around with no bets.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

No bets. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall: +5.13 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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