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BlackBook - Monday, 6 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 6 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


WODONGA - Race 9

OTHER

He had race fitness with the 3-runs this prep, but #6 MEDIA EMPIRE was a nice winner of Heat 15 on Jan 31 where he went straight to the front and didn’t look back, only Three Rings getting close with a 6L gap back to 3rd and also clocking the equal second fastest time of the morning with I’m Thunderstruck. He’s been ordinary this prep but is 55-rated and it looked as though the blinkers went on here, so look for him fourth up in a BM58 where he can run and likely at a nice price.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Wodonga, Race 9

#6 MEDIA EMPIRE (3) - S Hasan

Low/Medium.

His three runs this prep have been poor, but the 1000m Trial in between runs was super. He gets some gear changes and steps up to 1300m now here, which might suit but he hasn't been above 1200m in all 8x starts since switching to Saab Hasan.


He hasn't won in 12x starts since his maiden win back in Dec 2021, so an obvious query there but he's in a BM58 fourth up and hopefully he leads from barrier 3.


The issue is now the price, as he was $11+ yesterday but last night halved into ~$6, which is a touch short so we're going to monitor.

If he stays around ~$6, we'll ½ stake for a 2% collect.

If he gets out to $10+, we can full stake for a 4% collect and it'll be the same outlay as the ½ stake at $6.

Last Updated: 8:14am AEDT on Monday, 6th February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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