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BlackBook - Monday, 4 April 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 4 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


MORNINGTON - Race 2

#8 BELLA SORELLINA (1) - C Maher & D Eustace

Bella Nipotina’s little sister BELLA SORELLINA was under a vice grip throughout Heat 7 on Feb 28 as she went to the line with previous winner Live In Hope. This was a lovely first jump out back and the 3yo filly will certainly build on this as she gears up for a return to the races. There has been some nice form come out of her debut 1L 4th with 1st (Titans) and 2nd (Teetotal) winning their next starts while 3rd (Gorgeous Prophet) won two starts later, the run rating a nice +3.9. Hopefully another jump out before resuming.


Bella Nipotina’s little sister BELLA SORELLINA was super again, with the 3yo filly closing super over the concluding stages in Heat 9 on Mar 15 and really attacking the line hard and certainly backing up her Feb 28 jump out where she was under a under a vice grip throughout. After that previous jump out we mentioned we were keen to see another jump out before resuming, this bit of work exactly what we needed to see and we’re keen to follow her into that first up run.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Mornington, Race 2 - BELLA SORELLINA

The younger sister of Bella Nipotina ran a 1L 4th at Wangaratta behind Titans, who came out and won 2x of his next 3x starts (a BM64 and CL2). In addition, Teetotal was 2nd and came out and won a MDN by 2.5L (after a spell) while Gorgeous Prophet in 3rd failed next start but bounced back the start after to win a MDN. They had a 2.2L gap on MOON YANCO, who had just ran 2nd to the very talented Fortunate Kiss, and was in this race as well.


Her first jump out she ran 3rd to Barclay's Bank (was 2nd in a MDN second up) and Live In Hope (won a MDN second up) while Chandon Burj was 4th (since ran 3rd in MDN first up).

In her second jump out where she won, she beat home stablemate Knife Talk (who was down to debut at Sale on Sunday but the meeting was abandoned) but she did win quite comfortably here.


That debut run rated +3.9, which is the best last start rating and the best peak rating of this race. She draw's barrier 1 with Beau Mertens taking the ride on the back of those two very nice jump outs and looks very hard to beat here.


ON A WINNING DAY is probably the main danger with D Lane going to Mornington for the 1x ride following jump outs on Mar 11 and Mar 25 (2nd to Crystal Chief).


EARLY PLAY (Friday): Happy to back in early markets at the $4.40 (we missed the $5 on TAB) - recommend taking the $3.50+ if possible as anything shorter is probably worth waiting until Monday to see final fields and conditions.


UPDATE (Monday): We should all be on at $3.70+, which was available on TAB from Friday (when we sent out the bet) until Sunday afternoon. With $0.08 deductions, the $4.40 comes down to $4.05 and $3.70 comes down to $3.40, which is a good result with her around the $2.80-$3.00 mark this morning.



BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS

We'll be tweeting each and every time the BlackBook is posted with bets or finalised for the day from now on so no one misses an update and can make the most of early odds when we're playing - head to Twitter (click here) if you're not already following us.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 1.50 units.


Mornington, Race 2

BELLA SORELLINA ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $4.40 (TAB)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +11.41 units at Recommend Price | +45.46 units at Betfair SP

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.



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