BlackBook - Monday, 31 October 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 31 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
BALLARAT - Race 2
#2 RAIN LORD was up to his usual tricks at the jump outs, bolting in Heat 6 on Oct 14 in slick time as he led from start to finish with ease. He wasn’t held back here like his Sep 30 jump out ahead of Phoenix Global (who was coming off a 0-64 win only two weeks earlier) and Poetic Whisper (since 4th MDN). As a 2yo, he was beaten by a 3yo in both of his career starts at SP’s of $3.50 and $1.10, that latest defeat being a bit worrying but he did pull up with thumps so had excuses. Now a 3yo and with the key gear change of now being a gelding, he should be able to finally get his maiden victory early this preparation. Hoping he goes country for an easy kill where he should be hard to beat.
BALLARAT - Race 3
#9 NAICONI was 2nd on debut to Crosswinds (won LR race next start) with a 4.5L gap back to 3rd before finishing 2nd again second up to Miss Dunsford (2nd in HCP next start and then 3rd in Group 3) while defeating Quang Tri back in 3rd (who has since won 3x races, including a LR race) and a 2L+ gap to 4th. She was then taken to a LR race at Morphetville when 6th prior to a spell, which shows the sort of opinion the stable had of her as a 2yo. Now a 3yo, the Nicconi filly has now had the three jump outs and we loved her work in Heat 5 on Oct 18, mainly because she was asked for an effort and really responded to savage the line. Always a bit sceptical of the McEvoy runners that just jump and run in their jump outs, but this filly has shown a lovely turn of foot and with that form on the board as a $185k filly, she should be going very close in a maiden first up this campaign as a 3yo.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Ballarat, Race 2
#2 RAIN LORD (6) - P & P Snowden
He looks very well placed here and is the clear horse to beat. Pink Cashmere hasn't been seen since the start of Sep and trial was only fair (big query there), so Russian Mint is the only real danger. The only real query was the wide draw, but he comes into barrier 6 now post-scratchings so there goes that query.
Expecting him to be the winner here and happy to be backing at anything $1.80+, he looks more a ~$1.60 chance.
Ballarat, Race 3
#9 NAICONI (7) - T & C McEvoy
He was scratched from Pakenham on Friday with barrier 2 in order to run here, which we suspect was a decision the stable made once the meeting was moved to the Ballarat Synthetic as he has jumped out on it, being his home track, and they take the piss here.
If they're happy to go here instead of Pakenham where they had a good set up, they must be confident he'll be going well in any race he headed to and looking at this race, it's his to lose.
Suspect he'll sit midfield and then look to peel out and strike late. He's the one to beat - he likely gets smashed in betting with that McEvoy home track factor so he's another you can take $1.80+ for this morning.
Last Updated: 8:00am on Monday, 31st October 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 696x runners | 213x winners (31%) & 222x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.15 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1043x runners | 249x winners (24%) & 284x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.20 WIN $3.03 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 32x runners | 22x wins (69%) & 6x placings (88%)
Medium Confidence: 58x runners | 25x wins (43%) & 16x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 50x runners | 7x wins (14%) & 16x placings (46%)
Low Confidence: 9x runners | 3x wins (33%) & 2x placings (56%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):