Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 31 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
SALE - Race 3
We mentioned #10 EXCEEDINGLY MAGIC after a jump out way back on Aug 19 where the 4yo mare then had an official trial on Sep 13 behind a talented The Billionaire but she was then put away. She returned in Heat 7 on Dec 15 to win ahead of much better than maiden grade horses in Curran and Evening Glory but did clock the slowest of the 750m heats for the morning, which is slightly concerning. Regardless, she’s got super form from her debut 4th and looks to have returned in nice order again. Expect to see another bit of work before she resumes, but certainly one we need to watch.
SALE - Race 4
#1 VERSILIA raced wide on debut on the heavy track before putting in a big run from near last second up to just miss. The 4yo Snitzel mare was put away, returning to lead from start to finish in Heat 11 on Jan 10 alongside Knight’s Sword and clocking a nice time. Only her first jump out, but she looks to have returned well.
This meeting was moved from Sunday to today (Monday) with the track in terrible condition on the Sunday. In saying that, we're still working with a very wet Heavy9 track so plenty of queries around how the runners will handle the conditions.
Sale, Race 3
EXCEEDINGLY MAGIC looked to handle the Heavy track conditions in her trial but there is always a query on race day. Will jump from barrier 7 of 7 along with a 2kg claim, which gets her in very well at the weights - expect her to push forward to lead with the drop back from 1200m first up to 1106m here suitable.
Looks a race between her and VINLAGO for us, but hard to have much confidence with the conditions and at the price so happy to let her go around. She was $3+ yesterday but ~$2.20 today, which is too short to look at.
Sale, Race 4 - VERSILIA
VERSILIA was a short priced favourite yesterday, but gets out to ~$4 today for some reason. She brings in the best last start rating at +6.7 and the best peak rating at +0.9, that peak rating coming on a Heavy8 track at Moe while her last start run was on a Soft track, so she's been exposed to wet tracks and has handled them. She has only had the one jump out, but it was a nice return.
Worried that she'll get back and be forced to run on late, which isn't ideal for a Heavy track but does get the big Sale straight so she'll certainly have plenty of room and time to do so. If she doesn't get too far back and stays in touch with them, expect her to run well. Happy to have a small low confidence bet.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 1.00 units.
Sale, Race 4
VERSILIA ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $4.00 (TopSport & Others)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +20.39 units at Recommend Price | +57.57 units at Betfair SP
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PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY
Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!
She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!
We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...