top of page

BlackBook - Monday, 3 October 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 3 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.


PAKENHAM - Race 5

OTHER

#2 AUROLAA jumped cleanly in Heat 9 on Sep 22 to go forward, given a little push to get there, and then really put them away over the concluding stages when he was ridden out. He was quietly ridden in a previous Sep 16 jump out so this will really bring him on for his first up run, his first as a 3yo. He had the 2x starts as a 2yo, both of which were really poor, but being a $130k buy, he may have come back better as a 3yo and his jump outs suggest that. It won’t be a stack of confidence, but he’s worth monitoring.

 
TELEGRAM CHAT

1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org

2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1

3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9


BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Pakenham, Race 5

#1 AUROLAA (11) - S Zahra

Low/Medium.

Barrier isn't great, so he's going to need some favours to fall his way but thought his jump outs were handy and at the price, he's certainly worth a bet as we don't have to outlay much.

Hopefully a few got the $34+ yesterday with him at $21 this morning - if you haven't backed yet, can play ½ now and ½ at the SP as he likely gets back out closer to the jump.

Last Updated: 8:23am on Monday, 3rd October 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

687x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.23 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

1010x runners | 237x winners (23%) & 276x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.33 WIN $3.05 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

bottom of page