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BlackBook - Monday, 3 July 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 3 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


PAKENHAM - Race 3

Both of John Sadler’s runners in Heat 2 on Jun 21 put in a good performance and they clocked slick time in the process for the 1000m, the fourth fastest overall time we have recorded.

EXPLOSIVE ROSIE won the heat after sitting just off the leaders throughout, put under pressure and shown the whip at the ~200m mark as she took off to the front and won nicely but was a touch green. She’s a speed filly that was a touch disappointing in her debut campaign but she’s been given time and looks to have come back improved.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Pakenham, Race 2

#7 EXPLOSIVE ROSIE (4) - J Sadler

Medium.

She was well backed in both runs in her debut prep but was a touch disappointing, finishing 3rd in both. Given time, she’s returned in good order and has gone well in both jump outs, the latest we’ve seen Wellie Belle (2nd) since run 2nd by 0.2L and Dundancer (3rd) since 2nd, both in MDN’s, which is nice enough form.


She gets the blinkers on here having not had those in the JO’s so there will be even more improvement to come. The only query for us is 1100m instead of 1000m.


Drawn barrier 4, she should have no excuses here and finds a very winnable race where no one has shown much at all in the jump outs. The only potential danger seems to be the 2yo Perilous Fighter but drawn Barrier 15 and looking at the JO’s, he will be getting back and running on so prefer to be with Explosive Rosie who will be up on speed.


She should be winning this race and have to back her. If she doesn't win, going to be hard to be with her again as she won't find many more winnable than this (unless something pops up).

Think the ~$2 she is now race morning is about the price that she starts.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Pakenham, Race 1

#12 TYCOON JENNY (4) - G Eurell

BlackBook jump out comments:

Nice and easy win for TYCOON JENNY in Heat 13 on May 29 as she led throughout and recorded a soft victory. A previous $230k buy, she’s a Written Tycoon filly worth keeping an eye on but want to see another bit of work prior to the debut.

Last Updated: 7:45am AEDT on Monday, 3rd July 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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