BlackBook - Monday, 3 January 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 3 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


SANDOWN - Race 3

OTHER

Resuming gelded (we believe), #6 MATAO MA looks to be travelling well enough to be competitive first up following a jump out win on Nov 23 and then again in Heat 7 on Nov 29 where he clocked the fastest 800m time of the morning in the process. He jumped well, took up the lead with an un-raced Bedggood runner where they kicked away in the straight and put a gap on 3rd. He was under significantly less pressure than the inside horse, albeit with a little bit of pressure himself, and looked to respond well and kicked back nicely. His last start 2nd to Prince Alexander reads well now, that runner since placing at Listed level. He was a $220k Magic Millions purchase and is a half-brother to the Group 1 winning mare Bonham, so there is no shortage of expectations for him and they’ll be hoping he can live up to them, which he might now as a gelding. Will note that he might be one to follow as he gets out in trip, his best run last prep coming at 1400m after runs at 1000m and 1200m, which is something to be mindful of first up.


SANDOWN - Race 4

OTHER

#2 WORDY is a lightly raced 5yo gelding who looks to be going well enough to run well first up in his second career preparation. His first jump out on Nov 26 was behind subsequent winner So Risque prior to winning a jump out on Dec 6 and then again in Heat 5 on Dec 17 where he clocked the fastest time of the morning in the process. He’ll be best suited in a BM58 first up, maybe even a CL1, and looks to be one we should follow.


SANDOWN - Race 8

OTHER

Considering she already has two BM64 wins under her belt, would love to see #14 YOSEMITE resume in a BM64 prior to going back in town following her jump out win in Heat 8 on Dec 6 in her return. She also goes well fresh, with two wins and one placing from three first up runs. Hopefully another jump out before we follow her into a BM64 first up.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Sandown, Race 3

MATAO MA's last three runs have rated -4.8, +4.2 and -1.9 first up this preparation when 2nd to Treporti while No Baby No was 3rd who has subsequently ran 2nd and 1st in Maiden's. If he runs to any of those runs, he'll be very hard to beat.

He'll be fitter second up, draw's barrier 1 to allow him to get a lovely run in transit and really should just win this.


The only real danger looks to be OCEAN CHIEF, the debut only rating +8.5 but did travel 3-wide no cover there throughout.


Sandown, Race 4

Happy to have a spec on WORDY here at a nice price. We would've preferred the BM58 first up rather than a CL1 at Sandown, but still think he can run well with 59kg. He'll need to improve on previous runs but still worthy of a spec.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 3.25 units.


Sandown, Race 3

MATAO MA ~ 3.00 units WIN @ $1.75 (TAB)


Sandown, Race 4

WORDY ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $19.00 (TAB) or $17.00 (TopSport)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +30.18 units at Recommend Price | +61.35 units at Betfair SP


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