BlackBook - Monday, 29 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 29 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


KYNETON - Race 1

OTHER

They clearly had an opinion of #1 ENUFF ALREADY, debuting as an early 2yo behind Ingratiating before being spelled and then running into Crystal Bound (when the blinkers went on) where he just didn’t measure up and was immediately spelled again. Looks as though he returns as a gelding here and there was no blinkers on as he led and won Heat 8 on Nov 19 ahead of the talented Open Minded who were a bit above the rest of the field. This was the fourth fastest time of 17x heats as well. He’s one to watch for, being only his first jump out here.

A few jump out wins now for #12 UPTOWN LUCY now, the latest in Heat 10 on Nov 16 and this was the most impressive as she won over the 800m in the fastest time of the morning. Alana Kelly was on board and even had a look over the shoulder at the horse she was passing with ease despite being ridden out while she was quietly ridden. She’s travelling well ahead of her debut.

#12 UPTOWN LUCY with another jump out win, her fifth jump out win from her last five jump outs, all in the last four months. She took out Heat 8 on Nov 23 over the 900m. She’s doing all you can ask for at the jump outs, but the amount of jump outs she’s had puts some doubt in our mind that there is some sort of issue with her. One to keep in mind on debut, which should be soon…


KYNETON - Race 7

OTHER

Slick 6L win by #2 LORD DOMINO in Heat 12 on Nov 8 over the 1000m, a very nice return for this 4yo gelding following a nice debut preparation with a 1st and a 2nd in the two runs. He looks to have returned well.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Kyneton, Race 1 - ENUFF ALREADY + UPTOWN LUCY

UPTOWN LUCY debuts on the home track and has had plenty of jump outs that should have her forward enough to run here. It wouldn't surprise to see George Osborne targeting this race at the hometrack. The worry is whether or not she might be overdone after so many jump outs. Expect her to go forward from barrier 6 and be given every chance.


ENUFF ALREADY resumes gelded and was smashed in the early markets. He opened $21 on TAB and is into ~$5 or so. He brings in the best last start rating at +5.7, which is also the third best peak rating, so if he's come back improved now as a gelding and improves on his previous runs, he is one of the ones to beat. Fred Kersley is a positive booking too.


JET JITSU comes here gelded and is in the top three for rating. CLAUDIA SHIVER has jumped out okay. PRESS FOR VICTORY brings in the second best last start rating (+7.2) and the best peak rating (+1.3). MERLINIAN is also not without a chance.


Actually quite an even race. We're going ENUFF ALREADY on top but not confident enough to play - he's only had the one jump out coming into this and may need the run - certainly would've taken a bit of the $21 if it was still available, but the $5 this morning isn't anything special. UPTOWN LUCY looks a good winning chance as well but we're a bit worried about her having so many jump outs - would've much preferred her having only the two or three, not six (despite the 10-week freshen up).


No bets - sit back and watch for us. Wouldn't talk you out of betting either ENUFF ALREADY or UPTOWN LUCY if you're keen, but not going to talk you into a bet at the same time.


Kyneton, Race 7 - LORD DOMINO

Ratings wise, he brings in the second best last start benchmark rating at +3.5 behind COLSRIDGE at +2.8. Draw's quite nicely here with barrier 6 and should go forward and be given every possible chance.


No bets here.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

No bets. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall: +11.46 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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