Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 28 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Kyneton, Race 3
#7 FLYING ON A LIMB (2) - C McDonald
Watchlist jump out comments:
FLYING ON A LIMB did it nicely enough as she led from start to finish in Heat 11 on Nov 21 while under a grip from the jockey, never let go at any stage. This was her third jump out following a pair of jump outs on Oct 17 and Oct 24 and a 4-week freshen up, finishing 2nd in both of those behind Russian Mint (since 5th and 2nd in MDN’s) and Bemote (since 3rd in MDN). The daughter of Flying Artie was a $155k purchase and did it nicely enough here so she’s worth keeping an eye on for her debut.
No bet recommended - thought her latest jump out was good and was worth following, but not super and good enough to be taking ~$2.70 on debut so going to let her go around without us today.
Last Updated: 8:30am on Monday, 28th November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 699x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1072x runners | 258x winners (24%) & 294x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.03 WIN $3.00 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)
Medium Confidence: 70x runners | 29x wins (41%) & 18x placings (67%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 62x runners | 11x wins (18%) & 22x placings (53%)
Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):