BlackBook - Monday, 28 February 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 28 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


HAMILTON - Race 3

#14 TOPEKA (2) - T & C McEvoy

TOPEKA looked extremely good in her first jump out back, going to the line just ahead of the 65-rated Star Of Manhattan in Heat 14 on Feb 3 with a huge gap back to 3rd where they clocked the third fastest time of the morning. She had excuses in her last run before a spell, jumping poorly but still rattled home in the meetings top 5 L600/400m splits. This is only her first jump out back, so expect to see another bit of work but this was super.


Very keen to follow TOPEKA into a mid-week maiden first up, she looks to be flying at the jump outs this time in. She won a Feb 3 jump out ahead of Star Of Manhattan (who won Heat 2 just after this)that caught our eye, backing it up with another win in Heat 1 on Feb 15 over the 800m where she sat in behind the speed before being presented at the top of the straight, pushed along and showing that lovely turn of foot she has to put a 2-3L gap on them and win in the second fastest time of the morning. She’s travelling super and should be competitive first up.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Hamilton, Race 3 - TOPEKA

This looks a lovely race for TOPEKA to kick off in and she's drawn beautifully with barrier 2.

Her debut run when 4th behind Fire, that has brought plenty of subsequent winners (2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th), rated +4.4 and is the third best career rating of any horse in this race so she just needs to run to that to be hard to beat here. They crawled in her second career run (+22.0 to the 600m) and she managed to run on well from last to finish 3rd - on PuntingForm she is down as having ran the meetings 3rd fastest L400m and L200m. In her debut run she drew barrier 3 and sat outside the leader while in her second career run she drew barrier 9 of 10 and went back before running on late - she's versatile and with barrier 2 here, expect her to be prominent in the run, most likely sitting just in behind the leaders.

Jump outs have been super and she looks to have come back improved. In her first jump out she held of Star Of Manhattan with a huge gap back to the rest of the field. In her second jump out she was forced to travel wide but extended away in the straight as she was pushed out, which will really bring her on for this. She won by a couple of lengths ahead of Sir Maximus (since 1st MDN).


There doesn't look to be a lot of dangers.

SOOBMERGED steps back to 1100m after runs over 13000m and 1400m with the blinkers and cross over nose band coming off - looks likely to lead but draw’s barrier 15 of 15 so might have to do some work to get over and most likely gets trapped wide a bit.

BOLD TROPIC has won two jump outs for the new stable after being gelded and with barrier 3 here, he will likely push forward as well.

EASY ON THE EYES was only fair in her jump outs and would think she needs to improve to go close here.


Keen that TOPEKA wins this - was happy to be on anything $2.50+ but she's come in a bit so going to play the SP.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 3.00 units.


Hamilton, Race 3

TOPEKA ~ 3.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -0.94 units at Recommend Price | +35.38 units at Betfair SP

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.



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