BlackBook - Monday, 27 December 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 27 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


STONY CREEK - Race 2

OTHER

The gelding looks to have switched #4 IMMORTAL SPIRIT on, giving us a couple of nice jump outs now. He was 3rd to subsequent 2.2L maiden winner Vermentino on Nov 29 before her easy win in Heat 4 on Dec 13, although it was only average time for the morning. Having started $16 and then $51 in his first two carer starts, we’d expect him to be a nice price first up this preparation and he’d be worth a spec having had that key gear change.


STONY CREEK - Race 3

OTHER

#5 MAGIC DRUM bolted in Heat 3 on Nov 12 in the fastest 800m of the morning, which was also above the overall benchmark time. She ran 2nd first up last prep (on debut) before pulling up lame and then being spelled immediately. On the back of this we probably can expect her to show a bit first up this preparation, similar to her debut prep, and she might be at a price being from a small stable with the trainer as the sole owner.


Heat 6 on Dec 15 was the slowest of the four 1000m heats, but #14 RIVERS REWARD did it well enough with the 4yo mare winning her first jump out back this preparation, putting a little bit of the gap on 3rd and the rest of the field. She was very poor on debut but was immediately spelled and given more time. One to keep an eye on.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Stony Creek, Race 2

We were keen to play LORD PARAMOUNT (despite the barrier), so it's a little disappointing to see him scratched but it's also a good sign to show they're keen to place him very well first up here to get a win.


WOLF REIN has had the one jump out ahead of her resumption. She looked the main danger and now looks the main winning chance having had the five career runs that have all rated well where any of those would have her very competitive here. IMMORTAL SPIRIT is the other that looked capable of running a nice race first up, resuming gelded after some nice jump outs.


No bet race for us following the scratching of LORD PARAMOUNT. Expecting our other runner IMMORTAL SPIRIT to run well but there isn't too much appeal in the ~$3.50 available with WOLF REIN (~$2.50) a big chance as well.


Stony Creek, Race 3

MAGIC DRUM's first up run last preparation rated +6.9 and then he pulled up lame and was subsequently spelled. He's only had the on jump out in preparation for this, an impressive win at Sale that was back on Nov 12... he is a huge watch here first up.

Our other runner in RIVERS REWARD has also only had the one jump out and it was a nice one over 1000m at Mornington - she is a huge price here. The barrier is the big worry.


We were on PRECIOUS SOCKS last start and she clearly didn't handle the Heavy track. Backs up here only only 8 days later and gets a good track but does draw barrier 11. BEAUTOX has jumped out well enough to go well here first up and has the ratings. Likewise SANTA FE ROSE who has jumped out well at Mornington.


We'll have a spec on MAGIC DRUM and a tiny spec on RIVERS REWARD with her at $61 (TopSport) currently, but not expecting too much support so we can play the SP. Total bet will be a low confidence play.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 0.50 units.


Stony Creek, Race 3

MAGIC DRUM ~ 0.45 units WIN @ Betfair SP

RIVERS REWARD ~ 0.05 units WIN @ Betfair SP


Overall: -3.85 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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