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BlackBook - Monday, 26 June 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 26 June 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


PAKENHAM - Race 4

OTHER

Both of John Sadler’s runners in Heat 2 on Jun 21 put in a good performance and they clocked slick time in the process for the 1000m, the fourth fastest overall time we have recorded. DUNDANCER did it from the back, settling last before closing nicely after being pushed out and shown the whip. She’s a flashy filly that showed some talent in her debut prep when 4th in all 3x runs but we have seen some nice form come from those races with winners all around her, especially her latest run behind all subsequent winners in Gringotts, El Soleado and Moya Lass. She certainly has a maiden win in her if she can strike the right race.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Pakenham, Race 4

#10 DUNDANCER (5) - J Sadler

Low/Medium.

Looks like she strikes the right (winnable) race first up being a 1400m maiden - Eureka Storm and Cyclone Harmony will need to improve but do have race fitness, while Artspace is a 2yo that wasn't anything special at the JO's and then the race drops away quite a bit.


The worry is where she gets to in the run but hoping Ben Allen is a touch more positive from barrier 5 and gets her to settle midfield rather than last and then it'll be a matter of clear air late as we know how well she can close off.


Think she'll be hard to beat and happy to take $2+ but not too keen on loading up with that map worry so will be ½ staking here to collect 2%/2u.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Pakenham, Race 3

#7 REMUDA (1) - D & C Feek

BlackBook jump out comments:

REMUDA makes his way to VIC following 3x runs in Tasmania, debuting in a May 9 jump out that saw him finish 2nd (by a long way) to subsequent winner Playin’ Thru before then winning over 1000m in Heat 2 on May 30. He went forward here and had an easy time out in front throughout, holding on late. Once to monitor first up.

Last Updated: 7:42am AEDT on Monday, 26th June 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB


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