BlackBook - Monday, 25 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 25 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Benalla, Race 1 - MR SATELLITE

He is an ex-blackbook runner that is third up now, but the key is this is his first time on a Good track after having both career starts on a Heavy track. Both times he has led and we expect him to do the same here from barrier 3. Last start he was heavily backed into $6.50 but faded late, potentially not handling the wet. He started $13 on debut.


His last start rating of +8.1 would be competitive here unless something jumps out of the ground. The worry is going to be the last 100m or so, but he should be really peaking third up now. None of the un-raced on debut have really stood out to us and we think he's worth one more go at a big price for a small spec.


OUR BETS

We're trialling a new 'units' system to have a new way of recording and showing our bets and results. As a rule of thumb, we'll follow the following staking:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 0.25 units.

Overall: + 0.40 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


Benalla, Race 1

MR SATELLITE ~ 0.25 units @ $41.00 (Bet365 at 8:24am) - if you miss the $41, look to play Betfair SP.


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