BlackBook - Monday, 25 April 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 25 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


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MOE - Race 2

OTHER

#9 MISS WINNY started $61 on debut and ran 9th of 11 in a disappointing performance. She then had a jump out at Moe but clearly something was wrong as she was then spelled immediately. The 3yo filly returned in an 800m jump out on Mar 29, finishing 3rd to Outback Action (since 2nd in MDN on debut) and Blistering (since 2nd in a HCP race at Caulfield). She was back at the jump outs in Heat 2 on Apr 20 over the 1000m, leading from start to finish to win well ahead of the talented Pick Za Beans. Would think she starts a big price first up and would be a very low confidence play, but might be one worth a spec.


FLEMINGTON - Race 6

OTHER

#4 SQUID GAME was superb, taking out Heat 8 on Apr 8 over the 800m under a strong hold but doing so with ease. That’s 3x jump outs now and he’s ready to head back to the races where you’d expect him to go well in some nice races.


FLEMINGTON - Race 8

OTHER

Superb win from #5 CRESTANI, bolting in Heat 9 on Mar 30 over the 750m in arrogant fashion. The 4yo gelding had his stablemate The Sisters (and the rest of the field) covered with ease.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Moe, Race 2 - MISS WINNY

Considering she started $61 on debut and ran 9th, the ~$13 opening price here seems a touch under the odds so expecting a drift as we get closer to the jump. Barrier 8 of 9 isn't ideal, but on the back of 3x jump outs that were all solid, she will likely go forward and hopefully give a sight first up. The issue is it's 1114m and not 1000m, which she probably would've been more suited to and she may be left wanting late, but it's a tight turning Moe track, which will hopefully help.


SUNDAY YUM CHA is understandably the favourite, she does have form behind Profiteer from her debut run and although her first up run this prep after a long break was disappointing (considering she started $1.65 and could only manage 3rd), the run rated +10.0 which is the best last start rating and would be the best peak rating of this race, so it's not going to take a superstar to win this, which also bodes well for MISS WINNY as she's not going to need to run some ridiculous race to win. MISS WINNY's debut run rated +16.2, which is the third best last start rating of this race...


This is SUNDAY YUM CHA's race to lose. CASHMERE INN is probably the only real main danger but not convinced, while MISS WINNY is the blowout chance and then it looks like the race drops away.


Think MISS WINNY is worth a spec but playing the SP for that drift - low confidence play.


UPDATE: since posting (incl. Twitter), she's been smashed $15 into $6. Don't think she's a $6 chance so will be looking for that drift still to play - still think she's a low confidence play (despite the short-ish price).


Flemington, Race 8 - CRESTANI

He has since had a jump out on Apr 13 and looked as though D Oliver was on board, sticking here for the first up run. He didn't have the blinkers on in either of his jump outs too, which he wears today. He looks to be flying at the jump outs and has a good first up record (3: 1-1-0) and last start up the straight at Flemington in a BM78 he ran 3rd to Pioneer River at an SP of $6.50, so he can handle the straight and has ran well in this grade before. His 4x starts at Flemington have only resulted in 1x placing, but 2x of those runs were over 1400m and 1x over 1000m, both unsuitable distances.


Think he can run better than his price suggests and at $16, happy to have a small play.


The total outlay for today will be 0.50 units (so $50 for $100 unit punters), with 0.20 units on MISS WINNY at Moe and 0.30 units on CRESTANI. Low confidence day, but hopefully we can get one of the two home at big prices (or both...).


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 0.50 units.


Moe, Race 2

MISS WINNY ~ 0.20 units WIN @ Betfair SP (Betfair)


Flemington, Race 8

CRESTANI ~ 0.30 units WIN @ $16.00 (TopSport)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +10.14 units at Recommend Price | +43.66 units at Betfair SP

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