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Writer's pictureThe Jump Outs

BlackBook - Monday, 24 July 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 24 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BALLARAT - Race 3

GOVERNOR has been doing everything but win in his 7x career starts, now making his way to his third stable in Patrick Kearney after being purchased for $16k from the Inglis Digital sale. His first jump out on Jun 28 was a nice bit of work after travelling wide throughout, cruising to the line to finish 2nd - ignore Racing.com who have him finishing 7th. He then went around again in Heat 5 on Jul 12, winning by a huge margin in the fastest time of the morning. He needs an easy maiden, but should find one this time of year and looks to handle the synthetic track nicely so look for a Ballarat synthetic maiden first up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Ballarat, Race 3

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#2 GOVERNOR (3) - P Kearney

Low/Medium.

He’s certainly had his chance to break his maiden in the past for Michael Moroney where he’s ran solidly - last prep he had 5x starts, ignoring his 37.1L last, he finished 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 4th and with some unlucky runs.

Purchased for $16k by Patrick Kearney, he’s looked super in two jump outs here on the Ballarat Synthetic track, the first alongside Steel Jimmy who bolted in first up and the latest an easy win.


Drawn beautifully here, think he can put himself right there from the get go and run well, he’s the one to beat.


There has been 45c of deductions with the scratchings and he's now ~$2.40, which we're not keen to be diving into. If he shortens late, no bet - if he gets out to closer to ~$3.50, he's a bet for a ½ collect.

Last Updated: 7:52am AEDT on Monday, 24th July 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):


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