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BlackBook - Monday, 21 November 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 21 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


TERANG - Race 5

OTHER

#12 JENNI L’ARTISTE just fell out of the gates in a previous jump out at Ballarat on Oct 18, subsequently just walking to the line so ignore that run. She wasn’t away great in Heat 18 on Nov 7 but her work post the jump was super as she showed nice early speed to lead and then just cruised to the line over the 1000m. She clocked about average time for the morning, but she easily could’ve opened up a bigger margin if she was asked for any sort of effort, especially considering those behind her were ridden out but couldn’t keep up. A 4yo daughter of Turn Me Loose, she looks quite a nice mover.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Casterton, Race 5

#12 JENNI L'ARTISTE (4) - C Maher & D Eustace

High.

Loved this mare's latest jump out and think the 1200m suits perfectly, especially with barrier 8 and John Allen on board.

She needs to tidy up her starts, so that's the worry and in an ideal world, she has that third JO where she begins well, but on talent she looks like a smart mare and should just be way too good for these.


This has become a nightmare with the meeting moved from a favourable Terang track to Casterton, but a stack of scratchings leaves this race even thinner than before.

As a result, she's now $1.45 rather than the $2.50 we were getting yesterday (or $3.90 in early markets).


Very keen to be with her, just hate the sub-$1.50 price so look to play her late and sneak as good of a price as possible. Think she just wins.

Last Updated: 8:36am on Monday, 21st November 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 698x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1063x runners | 256x winners (24%) & 291x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.09 WIN $3.01 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 36x runners | 24x wins (67%) & 7x placings (86%)

Medium Confidence: 67x runners | 29x wins (43%) & 17x placings (69%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 57x runners | 9x wins (16%) & 20x placings (51%)

Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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