BlackBook - Monday, 21 February 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 21 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


TERANG - Race 3

OTHER

In only his first jump out back, #3 PENTEGRA showed nice speed to lead and win Heat 5 on Jan 19. This being his third career preparation, they’ve made the decision to geld this 3yo and it may be the deciding factor in really switching him on and getting that debut win on the board. He had the rest of the field covered here, including previous maiden winner Another Engagement in 2nd. Keep an eye out for another jump out, nice bit of work here though.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Terang, Race 3 - PENTEGRA

PENTEGRA was scratched from a race on Sunday in order to run here - he's also accepted for Stawell on Tuesday, so he certainly had plenty of options to chose from and landed on this race. Barrier 9 of 11 isn't ideal, but he will show speed to push forward and take up a prominent position. He brings in the best last start rating and the best peak rating from his first up 2nd, which rated +1.5. He's a deserved favourite.


SIR MAXIMUS jumped out well behind our TopSport TopPerformer in Topeka. BEST LIFE's latest jump out when 3rd was behind Orpheline who has since won a BM58 but the 2nd horse in Sandman is a 29-start maiden - Tom Dabernig is flying since moving to Warrnambool.


Wanted to back PENTEGRA but the ~$1.85 seems rock bottom - he was $8+ in the race on Sunday and is still $4+ in the Stawell race tomorrow. Monitor his price for a drift late, would be keen to get involved at $2.50+ (hopefully closer to $3) for a 1.5-2.0 unit play but that would take a reasonable drift so it may be unlikely. At the $1.85 though, don't want to get involved even though he's the top pick and one to beat.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -0.49 units at Recommend Price | +36.31 units at Betfair SP

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.



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