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BlackBook - Monday, 20 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 20 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


WARRNAMBOOL - Race 2

#8 MISS MILHOUS (6) - A Alexander

It didn’t have the big margin like her first jump out on Jan 23, but MISS MILHOUS was super again in Heat 8 on Feb 3 when finishing 3rd. The 3yo filly got a lovely trail in the back half of the field along the fence behind the leaders before peeling out late and closing really nicely once she did get out into that clear air. She wasn’t ‘pushed out’, but was given a bit more reign and ridden differently where she was asked to close off from behind, so very encouraging signs and quite convinced this is a nice filly. As mentioned the other week, she was a $220k buy and Archie looks to have a nice Toronado filly on his hands. Very keen to follow her into her debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Warrnambool, Race 2

#8 MISS MILHOUS (6) - A Alexander

Medium.

Her jump outs were super and the form from that second jump out has seen Jennilala since ran 2nd in a BM64 at Moonee Valley, which is solid form.


HOOAH HAVANA is only danger in our eyes - he won a jump out on Feb 6 having come across from WA following 3x starts for 3x 2nd's... his stablemate in POWER MISSILE was also in that jump out but beaten easily.


Backing in our judgement as we loved the work of MISS MILHOUS and will be with her here, but we'll play late at the SP as the $2.40 seems skinny enough and it wouldn't surprise to see the $ come for Hooah Havana being a L Smith galloper at Warrnambool.


Backing SP / late.

Last Updated: 8:21am AEDT on Monday, 20th February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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