BlackBook - Monday, 20 December 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 20 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
TERANG - Race 2
#2 CROC LURKIN’ is another one Jamie Edwards looks to have going well. He took out Heat 3 on Dec 15 to back up his Dec 3 win ahead of National Choice and certainly looks to be travelling well enough to go well in a maiden first up upon his return. Not sure he handled the 1400m in his last start, so the 1000m-1100m that he finished 3rd and 2nd in might be more his go. Keep an eye out.
Terang, Race 2 - CROC LURKIN'
Disappointing about the scratching of WHAT HAPPENED, but okay with it at the same time as it leaves us with CROC LURKIN' as our sole runner.
Ratings wise, no surprise to see KADENA bring in the best last start rating at +6.9 but we think CROC LURKIN' has gone under the radar. His last start rating is +13.1, being the fourth best, but we're not sure he handled the step up to 1400m and now resumes over 1000m where his first two career runs over the distance were +8.1 and +3.5 (1100m). If he runs up to either of those, he's a big chance here. Love the booking of Dean Yendall too.
His debut run over 1000m when 3rd, the winner in Rattle And Bang then won a BM64 next start and the 2nd horse came out and won by 7L in a MDN. He had 4th covered by 2.25L that day. His next start over 1000m when 2nd was to Mista Razzledazzle who has since placed in BM64's while the 3rd horse in Raging Monkey was 2nd and then 1st in MDN's after. That's good enough form for this.
KADENA has certainly had her chance to break the maiden and finds herself with barrier 11 of 14 here as a 3yo filly against the older 4yo gelding, but she does get a 3.5kg weight swing and CROC LURKIN' has barrier 9 so he's not exactly drawn much better. In saying that, think she's had her chance and fourth up in her first preparation dropping back to 1000m is a slight query for us.
KADENA and CROC LURKIN' have that race experience edge and thin they're the two to beat, but we're happy to be with CROC LURKIN' back at 1000m with his form and nice jump outs. He should be going very close - medium confidence bet.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 1.50 units.
Terange, Race 2
CROC LURKIN' ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $4.00 (Sportsbet) | $3.90 (TopSport)
Overall: -0.95 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).
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