BlackBook - Monday, 2 May 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 2 May 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


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WERRIBEE - Race 2

#5 PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE (1) - G Begg

We’ve been waiting for the debut of PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE for a while now. We loved her jump outs back on Aug 17 and Aug 30, the first one being at Caulfield behind of The Big Heist (since won MDN) and the second one a very smart win. Being a $500k Inglis purchase that’s a half-sister to multiple time group-placed Missrock, she’s been given plenty of time prior to resuming in Heat 9 on Apr 11 where she showed a lovely turn of foot late to win after sitting a good 4L+ off the leaders and being ridden with no urgency. This was also one of the quicker jump outs of the morning, clocking 51.1s vs the day’s average of 51.67s. Keen to see another jump out and follow her into her debut.


Very keen to follow PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE in her debut. We mentioned her after her impressive Apr 11 win where she showed a lovely turn of foot, backing that up with a solid 2nd in Heat 9 on Apr 26 to the ex-Hawkes runner Almighty Rising. As mentioned previously, she was a $500k Inglis purchase as a half-sister to the multiple time group-placed Missrock and has performed at the jump outs on multiple occasions. Expecting her to go very well on debut.


WERRIBEE - Race 3

OTHER

Very good win by Chris Waller’s 2yo colt #8 MCTAGGART but his starts needs some work. He was very slow away in his first jump out on Mar 18 and as a result was just always at the back and never in it. He was away a bit better on Apr 1 but still clearly the slowest away and just quietly ridden out the back. This was similar again in Heat 3 on Apr 14 but he was given a dig and a real push to get going, which worked and once he got up and going he looked very comfortable and like a nice mover. He moves well, just very mindful of his starts which could be very costly.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Werribee, Race 2 - PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE

We've been waiting for the debut of this filly for a while now and we'll be keen to be with her - expecting her to go well. Form from her first jump out on Apr 11 where she won has seen Best Sister (2nd) has since ran 3rd.


BAHAMA looked the only danger but post scratchings, she finds herself on debut in a small field of 4 here and looks to be very very hard to beat. WANDJITY won't win. SIMPLY VENUS has jumped out okay and looks capable of running okay first up but don't think she'll beat our filly. PRESS FOR VICTORY has only had the 1x jump out and it was back on Mar 25 where she finished 3rd - will take a nice performance first up off only 1x jump out with 5-weeks since that bit of work.


Very winnable race for PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE and if she runs to her jump outs, then she should will just win this. Won't be backing ~$1.25 though, she'll win without our money on. We will monitor if she somehow drifts though... which we highly doubt.


Werribee, Race 3

This is a very interesting one as he's a 2yo colt taking on the older horses, which we don't usually see this early but we do generally see in late-June / July as the 2yo's are all but 3yo's and they are very competitive. It's going to be a tough ask to take on the older horses, especially a 4yo mare in COS I'M THE BOSS who jumped out well at Flemington on Apr 22 and has a massive race experience edge with clearly superior ratings than the rest of the field.


Won't be taking sub-$2.50 for him as a 2yo against the older horses. Annoying placement, would've much preferred a 2YO race where we could've played him and doubt he would've been much shorter than he is now...


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


No bets. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +4.39 units at Recommend Price | +37.91 units at Betfair SP

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