BlackBook - Monday, 19 September 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 19 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
PAKENHAM - Race 4
#5 FAST VICTORY (11) - B & JD Hayes
We had FAST VICTORY on our watchlist following a pair of jump outs on Apr 14 (alongside Alcedo who ran 2nd on debut before being exported) and Apr 22, where he was pushed out and ran over the top of Atlantis Tycoon (won on debut), Champagne In Lace (since 4th, 4th & 3rd) and Rain Lord (since 2nd & 2nd). He’s been given time, returning in Heat 3 on Aug 26 for a nice all the way victory alongside a colt we have a lot of time for in Breaking Ground. A 3yo gelding that was a $120k purchase from the Inglis Classic Yearling Sales, he’s one we’re monitoring.
FAST VICTORY was given a much more of a hit out this week, ridden out to win Heat 2 on Sep 2 (red) following a quiet Aug 26 jump out ahead of the 61-rated Lady Proisir. This was a super jump out, but it was good to see him put under pressure and respond, really extending past the line to bring him on ahead of his debut. He’s a nice enough gelding and he certainly has a maiden win in him. Must follow into his debut.
It was very hard to get a gauge on #7 GOLD GOVERNOR’s previous jump outs on Aug 17 and Aug 31 due to them being on the Synthetic track in small fields. He showed his hand in Heat 8 on Sep 7 though, showing nice early speed to lead before then showing a kick away in the straight and recorded an easy victory in the third fastest time of the morning despite being under significantly less riding than the rest of the field. He’s a 3yo son of Vancouver that’s worth keeping an eye on ahead of his debut.
PAKENHAM - Race 5
#7 HOLLER VALANCE is hopefully one that slips under the radar a little following a couple of handy jump outs. His first jump out on Aug 23 saw him go to the rear of the field and cruise to the line down the middle of the track, finishing 2nd to Helpmebrutha, a subsequent maiden winner at Moe. He took a different approach in Heat 12 on Sep 7, jumping straight to the front, leading throughout before being put under pressure around the bend. He was nabbed on the line, but he was put away late over the concluding stages and this will certainly bring him on for debut. Hopefully he can find a weaker maiden on debut.
We've started up a Telegram Channel (for Updates) and Group (for Chat) so that we can send notifications and early updates etc. plus also just have some general racing banter and chat in the group. You don't have to join, but we would recommend it...!!
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Pakenham, Race 4
PLUS FOURS deserves to be favourite and EDWIN had a slick Aug 19 JO against nice horses.
Happy to be with our runners at nice prices though (not much outlay), so backing FAST VICTORY ($10) and GOLD GOVERNOR ($5.50) for even returns.
#5 FAST VICTORY (11) - B & JD Hayes
Horrible barrier but gets the now-Group 1 winning jockey on board in Jamie Mott and can run well on the back of some nice Synthetic jump outs at Flemington. Expecting him to be on pace / midfield, so he should be every chance if he can get across into a spot. The barrier is the worry, if he was drawn in he'd be a really good winning chance.
#7 GOLD GOVERNOR (5) - C Brown
Can't judge him on his first two Synthetic trials but his latest on the grass was slick. Matt Cartwright heads down to Pakenham for the one ride on this gelding and on the back of his work, he looks one of the top winning chances from a nice barrier.
Pakenham, Race 5
#7 HOLLER VAlANCE (4) - J McArdle
Quite liked his JO's, especially his first one here at Pakenham where he closed super, so it's probably no real surprise to see him run here. Drawn beautifully to get a nice spot midfield and in a race with no standouts, he's a really good bet at the ~$6.
Last Updated: 8:33am on Monday, 19th September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
686x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 217x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.22 WIN $2.30 PLC
988x runners | 230x winners (23%) & 273x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.41 WIN $3.05 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):