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BlackBook - Monday, 19 June 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 19 June 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BALLARAT - Race 3

OTHER

This was a super bit of work from VIVIDEEL in Heat 5 on May 25. The 3yo Dundeel gelding was ridden with no urgency in the early stages as he dropped to the rear of the field, cruising throughout before making a move as they approached the bend. He went around the field and was clearly the widest runner around the bend so once he straightened up, he really got going late as he attacked the line hard where he was also good past the line. Super first jump out.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Ballarat, Race 3

#9 VIVIDEEL (2) - T & C McEvoy

Low/Medium.

His first jump out from May 25 was behind Meetmein Melbourne who has since won a MDN by 2L. His most recent jump out on Jun 7 didn't give much of a guide as there was some issues with the track, but he did win ahead of Oubitsa, who won here at Ballarat on Jun 13 for Michelle Payne when leading the whole way - nice JO form there.


STATESMANSHIP has led them up in both runs this prep so expect the same here from B4, which suits Ballarat Synthetic - he's been solid enough so far and will be there abouts again, but lacks the upside, which is the same for the majority of this field - it's a very winnable race.


Think this gelding has the upside having been a $190k buy with this being only his second career prep/run. Like the booking of John Allen and think he'll get every chance from barrier 2 - he needs to be relatively positive and get a sit behind Statesmanship where he can then come over the top late and go bang.

Happy to bet, think he is the one to beat and $3+ is about right so happy to take the ~$3.50 available this morning.

Last Updated: 7:54am AEDT on Monday, 19th June 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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