Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 18 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. We will give our thoughts and recommend bets at the end, but as a general rule of thumb, the highlighted runners are medium to high confidence while the 'other' runners will be low confidence. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
MORNINGTON - Race 3
OTHER
Rosseau was super in Heat 11 on Oct 1, but it was the two maiden fillies in JEZOULENKO and #11 FASHION AVENUE that were travelling just as well in their first jump outs this preparation and think they’re both worth having on the watchlist. #11 FASHION AVENUE has had the two starts while JEZOULENKO is un-raced.
#11 FASHION AVENUE was mentioned after an Oct 1 jump out, returning to win Heat 11 on Oct 8 ahed of the talented Alburq in 2nd and clocking the third fastest time of the morning, albeit pushed out late and asked to extend. They looked to be making a little ground on her past the line. She’s worth keeping in mind when she resumes.
OUR THOUGHTS / BETS
Mornington, Race 3 - FASHION AVENUE
Mornington can be a bit of a specialist track, so we certainly have to be mindful of the home track runners despite them being longer odds here. ALVERDUN has jumped out well and did so ahead of MESSA BELLA, but she was quietly ridden and arguably was just as good. Those look the two to beat with FASHION AVENUE only slightly behind.
Think she looks an E/W chance as a low confidence play - the $4.20/$1.80 available this morning looks about right.
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