BlackBook - Monday, 18 April 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 18 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


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SANDOWN - Race 2

OTHER Pretty easy all the way win for #2 FULLER in Heat 7 on Apr 8. Ignore his first jump out on Mar 25 where the leader just took off, this was an encouraging bit of work and think he’ll go well first up in a maiden after finishing 2nd on debut, despite not much form coming from the race.

Coming off a 3-week freshen up, #3 GALAXY RULER kicked away in Heat 11 on Apr 11 to record an easy victory. He was probably only fair first up despite starting $4.8, finishing 4.9L back in 5th behind Hongbao (since 3rd BM64) and The Hass (since 3rd MDN) with not much other form coming from the race. This should tick him over nicely for his second up run.


She was ridden out, but Peter Moody’s 3yo filly #11 LIFE LESSONS closed well to win Heat 7 on Apr 5 over the 950m by 1.2L in nice time, clocking 57.21s against the day’s average of 57.65s. She moved and closed well enough to be a filly worth monitoring on debut.


OTHER RUNNERS - NSW

Warwick Farm, Race 1 - #6 TAVI L’AMOUR (2)

Mar 18 (Randwick - Soft7) - she’s a nice filly, but she just gets back way too far - she was slowly away here, sat at the end of the field and then cruised home down the outside to make up a lot of ground and finish only 0.83L off the winner… super closing speed and nice trial, just gets too far back.

Apr 4 (Randwick - Heavy9) - much of the same for this filly, she got back to last and closed super to finish a close 3rd over the 1045m - she’s going to be a hard watch when she gets back and has to make ground, but there is no doubt she has the talent to win most MDN’s if she can get the right run.

 
OUR THOUGHTS (NO BETS)

HALLOWED GROUND’s latest run when leading (but finishing 2nd) is the best last start and best peak rating of this race at +3.2. Behind that is SHOHEI’s debut rating of +3.7 at Newcastle when 2nd to Sabino (since 3rd in a BM64) where she beat home Mirra View (3rd) by 3L with that runner since winning a MDN at Wyong. Both of these runners led and would expect them to do similar here again.


Can’t see LIDGATE winning, likewise VIPERION despite running 2nd last start (3rd place since finished 9th of 11 in a MDN).


LIFE LESSONS has had the 1x jump out and 1x official trial, which is unlike Moody who usually only gives them the 1x jump out. The official trial was good but she didn’t beat much.


GALAXY RULER was disappointing on the debut, the run rating +7.4 when 5th. Winkers off and blinkers on plus he’s had that jump out in between runs, which was super. He started $4.80 SP that day and we’re now getting $15+ but he hasn’t quite shown a lot in the 3x career runs to date.


FULLER’s latest jump out was super. The debut 2nd hasn’t had much form and is only the fourth best rating of this race. Barrier 4 and Craig Williams, so he likely goes forward as well with HALLOWED GROUND and SHOHEI.


Tough race. SHOHEI probably deserves to be favourite, but not sure she’s a ~$2 favourite. Our 3x runners are all good chances here and think they can all run well, but it’s hard to narrow it down and bet one as they’re all quite even. We're at a Soft6 and the rain hasn't stopped all morning, so it wouldn't surprise us to see the track closer to the Heavy and it's just not worth diving in and trying to sort our runners with those conditions. We're going to sit back and watch - follow the form from this race.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +10.44 units at Recommend Price | +43.96 units at Betfair SP

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