BlackBook - Monday, 17 October 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 17 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.


BENDIGO - Race 3

OTHER

She had the race fitness, but couldn’t believe #12 SWEET ’N’ SPICY finished as close as she did in Heat 10 on Oct 5. In the black silks, she was away worse than horribly, a good 10L+ off the leaders where she wasn’t even on the screen in the early stages but somehow finished ~1.5L off the winner and she did so under minimal riding. Have to keep an eye on her when she resumes from this let-up, this was very good and she should be a nice price.


BENDIGO - Race 4

#6 MORPHEUS BRAGI (1) - C Vidotto & C Beasy

Really loved the work of MORPHEUS BRAGI here in a heat that included horses a lot more experienced than he is, which isn’t hard considering he’s un-raced. He was solid in his return jump out Sep 21 when 2nd to Requited while defeating a few that have all run races. He again jumped out in a heat beyond his grade and was super, finishing 3rd in Heat 3 on Oct 5 but it was the way in which he finished 3rd and who he did it around that is worth noting. He was away slowly, settling at the rear of the field and a good 6L off the leaders in Streets Of Avalon and Mornington Glory but he more than made up that ground, showing a super turn of foot over the concluding stages as he went past Barb Raider (who was under more pressure) to get within 2L of those leaders in a super bit of work. Not only that, he was flying to and through the line and they clocked the fastest 900m time of the morning. This is his second prep but is yet to make a debut, winning a pair of jump outs on Apr 27 and May 11 prior to a spell and his return here. A 3yo son of Wrote, we are very keen to follow him into a debut.

#12 THE UNICORN (4) - G Waterhouse & A Bott

Expecting THE UNICORN to be hard to beat on debut. We mentioned her after previous Sep 22 jump out having also had a quiet Sep 2, where she was entered to run at Mornington on Thursday (yesterday) but scratched, likely due to the wide barrier and/or wet track. She was back at the jump outs, bolting in Heat 13 on Oct 7 as she led from start to finish along the rail under a ridiculous hold from Craig Newitt, winning by a big margin in the third fastest time of the morning. They don’t jump out much better than she did here and Craig Newitt is obviously keen to stick with her, riding her in this jump out having been booked to ride at Mornington before she was scratched. She was a $400k buy being out of Costa Viva, a Group 1 winning mare in NZ over 1600m, and she is going super ahead of her debut. She will lead so hopefully draws low and with Craig being a great front riding jockey, we are very keen to follow her on debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Mornington, Race 3

#12 SWEET 'N' SPICY (6) - L Tolson & L Proctor

Medium.

Her form is certainly good enough and her ratings suggest she's the one to beat - add in the slick jump out in between runs and the fact that this is her home track and she's drawn lovely with barrier 6, she should be hard to beat. She just needs to jump with them and not get back like her jump out and she looks a good bet - playing late.

Mornington, Race 4

Very excited for MORPHEUS BRAGI so backing him and saving on THE UNICORN.


THE UNICORN will lead while MORPHEUS BRAGI will need to sit behind her from barrier 1 - he can't be getting too far back from barrier 1 but honestly think he could be anything. Frustrated that THE UNICORN is in this race as well but would much rather lose $ on a saver on her than watch her win as she's the clear danger.

#6 MORPHEUS BRAGI (1) - C Vidotto & C Beasy

High.

He's probably been the best performed at the jump outs this year - you just don't see them perform like this against Group 1 horses and it's near impossible not to be backing him here. Hopefully he brings it on raceday and if so, we'll see a smart horse debut here.


Shattered he didn't run at Ballarat on Saturday, but we have no doubt that he's smart so we'll be backing him.

#12 THE UNICORN (4) - G Waterhouse & A Bott

Medium.

Loved her jump outs and with Craig Newitt on board from barrier 4, she will lead and be the one to chase down. She's the quinella horse but it wouldn't surprise us if she popped up to win as well.

Last Updated: 8:25am on Monday, 17th October 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

691x runners | 211x winners (31%) & 219x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.19 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

1028x runners | 242x winners (24%) & 282x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.28 WIN $3.04 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB