Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 17 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
ECHUCA - Race 1
Unseen since March 2022, ARABIAN MELODY looked back to her best in Heat 8 on Jun 26 as she won comfortably over 800m while doing some nice work late as she extended to and through the line. She wasn’t great in her first jump out 3-weeks ago and may need another bit of work prior to resuming but looks to have come back nicely on the back of this at least.
ECHUCA - Race 2
PRINCESS HALO was travelling super and going to win Heat 3 on Jun 21 with ease before she was pulled up and eased out of the jump out, officially finishing 5th of 7 runners. Her first two jump outs were quite similar, the first on May 26 ridden cold out the back and a Jun 9 jump out also ridden quiet but a bit closer. She was actually a previous feature of our reviews following a very very slick Dec 9 jump out and looks a nice mover that could be one that floats under the radar as she has been held back in recent jump outs. Big watch.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Echuca, Race 1
#5 ARABIAN MELODY (7) - C Maher & D Eustace
She was scratched on Vet Advice last Sunday at Werribee where she was well backed in the race won by Craft Star. If there are no lingering issues from that, she is the clear horse to beat on the back of some slick jump outs and some solid race form from her debut preparation as a 2yo.
Playing ½ Fixed this morning and ½ SP.
Echuca, Race 2
#9 PRINCESS HALO (3) - N Ryan
We were on her on debut and while the 4th was disappointing, thought her run was actually quite good and we’ve seen the 2nd horse in Wellie Belle come out and win by 6L at Bendigo. She went very fast to the 600m and was knocked up late, so the slight drop back from 1147m to 1100m suits and having that run under the belt is good fitness.
She’s drawn beautifully here with barrier 3 and gets a 2kg claim from Tom Prebble so expect she goes straight to the front and is hard to chase down.
Negotiations has had some early support but thought his jump outs were only fair so prefer to be with the race fitness, experience and form.
The issue is the price as $1.60 is too short so look to play late where we want $2+.
Could look to multi with Arabian Melody (R1) as well.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Echuca, Race 1
#3 NAY HAY HAY (9) - B Brisbourne
BlackBook jump out comments:
We don’t normally follow the Wangaratta jump outs as they’re hard to get a read, but it was very hard to ignore the finish on NAH HAY HAY in Heat 9 on Jun 27. The 3yo gelding was out the back of the field in the early stages before being put under pressure at the top of the straight and certainly responding, closing over the top superbly and very quickly. He previously won a Jun 14 as well and is worth keeping an eye on for his debut.
Last Updated: 7:54am AEDT on Monday, 17th July 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):