BlackBook - Monday, 17 April 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 17 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
SWAN HILL - Race 3
#2 GAMADALE NIP skipped to victory in Heat 9 on Apr 6, a dominant lead all the way victory over the 1000m. We were on him first up at Warrnambool where he started a $2.35 SP favourite but ran 10th of 11 and suffered a near fore tendon injury while Dean Yendall reported he made an abnormal respiratory noise, so very surprised to see him back at the jump outs following only a 3-week freshen up. It also looked like the blinkers went on here so if he’s over those first up issues, he certainly has a maiden win in him at the very least.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Swan Hill, Race 3
#2 GAMADALE NIP (3) - P Preusker
We were on this gelding first up where he started $2.25 SP and finished 10th - he was ordinary but had some clear issues - rider said he made a respiratory noise, so the tongue tie goes on here, and he had a tendon injury, but he's had the month off and a JO in between to get over that and based on his JO, he is.
The blinkers also go on and a 1000m jump out is the perfect preparation we want to see to be convinced he's over his issues, especially for only a 975m race.
Drawn barrier 3, think he goes forward to be right there (similar to 1UP) and he should be very hard to beat. He owes us...
Going to ½ stake now at $2.25 Fixed.
If he gets backed into sub-$2, leave as a ½ stake bet.
If he drifts to ~$3, re-back the other ½ for a full stake bet.
Last Updated: 7:52am AEDT on Monday, 17th April 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):