Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 16 May 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
BALLARAT - Race 1
Would be interested to know if #5 WILD KOMODO was gelded in the 3-week break he had between his four jump outs. He had two jump outs in Mar where he finished 7th of 10 and 10th of 10 before having that freshen up. He returned to finish 2nd on Apr 13 where he sat on speed and was ridden out to close well enough before the blinkers went on and he led from start to finish in Heat 7 on Apr 28 to win well under minimal pressure, despite not beating much. He’s a 3yo gelding by Unencumbered that’s a half-sister to Harmony Rose who was Group 1 placed in the Randwick Guineas and Vinery Stud prior to winning the Albury Cup in her last career run before retirement. This latest jump out was good enough to go well on debut, but the three prior jump outs were a bit iffy so probably best to tread with caution while still following where he pops up on debut.
#6 BELLA SORELLINA was 2nd in Heat 8 on May 2 to Talent Quest and is going to be a very interesting runner next start. We had the 1.50 units on here at $4+ first up where she started $1.65 but could only manage 4th and we’ve seen minimal form come from the race with the three horses that beat her since finishing 10th of 10, 8th of 11 and 5th of 7 in their next starts. She was jumping out here under Julien Welsh here due to her barrier manners with her proving difficult to load and being fractious in the barrier first up, she also sustained a cut to the lip and near hind pastern. We’ll monitor where she pops up next but she’s hard to trust, unless we can spec at a longer price.
#9 ROSALIA was meant to be ridden further forward first up but was slowly away and settled further back than anticipated for a disappointing run. She was back at the jump outs, bolting in Heat 2 on Apr 28 over the 1100m when leading throughout, clocking a nice 1:05.23s vs Heljami’s time of 1:07.44s in the heat after. She didn’t have a jump out prior to that first up run either, so maybe she’s one that will take some improvement second up and run a race at a big price?
BALLARAT - Race 2
We put a watch on #7 WHERE’S THE HUNTER following some jump outs and trails at the end of last year. He went to the line with subsequent maiden winner My Yankee Girl in a Sep 20 trial before leading all the way in a Sep 28 Bendigo jump out when hard held and his 2nd in Oct 14. He returned now for the Cliff Brown yard, having previously been with Lindsay Park (maybe Hong Kong related) where he just cruised the the line in a 2-horse field in Heat 15 on Mar 30 over the 750m, never getting out of first gear. Don’t mind this 3yo gelding, big watch on him.
Was a little disappointed with #7 WHERE’S THE HUNTER in Heat 6 on Apr 6, finishing 3rd despite getting some urgings along from his jockey. He had a 2-horse jump out on Mar 30, so it’s hard to get a real guide on him so we’ll be hoping for another jump out prior to he debut.
#12 TYWINA has been very poor in her 2x runs this prep, beating home only 1x runner. The Written Tycoon mare was making very good ground late in Heat 6 on May 9, powering through the line and doing her best work past the line. She had race fitness, but having won another previous 760m jump out on Apr 19 that was also on the synthetic, she might appreciate the surface more so and show some improvement as we get to the synthetic meetings. One to monitor as she’ll be a huge price (started $41 and $201 this prep).
Confidence - Comments
Ballarat, Race 1
Very even race - not keen to bet with many chances, including our BB's and Moon Yanco (who we had at the start of this prep & will be peak fitness now third up).
#5 WILD KOMODO (7) - M Freedman
Low/Medium - he's the on top selection (just).
#6 BELLA SORELLINA (3) - C Maher & D Eustace
#9 ROSALIA (11) - P Payne
Low - if playing this race - saver, don't want to lose if she wins at a huge price.
Ballarat, Race 2
#7 WHERE'S THE HUNTER (9) - C Brown
#12 TYWINA (13) - G & P Dalziel
Last Updated: 8:44am, 16th May 2022 (Monday).
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
661x runners | 198x winners (30%) & 209x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.33 WIN $2.31 PLC
773x runners | 171x winners (22%) & 211x placings (49%)
Ave Betfair SP | $13.05 WIN $3.10 PLC
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Confidence levels will be as follows:
Low = not keen to bet.
Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).
Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.
High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.
Special = very keen, should be winning.
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