Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 14 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
WARRNAMBOOL - Race 4
#13 POWER OF SONG is travelling well ahead of her return to the races, closing super in all three of her jump outs despite being under no jockey pressure in either of them. These include closing from a long way back in a Feb 23 800m jump out, followed by a 1000m jump out win on Mar 3 and her 3rd placing in Heat 14 on Mar 9 over the 1000m behind Scottish Dancer. She ran well on a Heavy8 track on debut (rating +4.1) before starting a $1.80 favourite and running poorly with a slow recovery and being immediately spelled. The three jump outs will have her forward for her return and she looks to be in good order.
Canberra, Race 4 - #9 I AM ME (5)
Feb 14 (Warwick Farm) - loved the work of this 3yo filly past the line - she jumped well but took a sit in behind the leaders before closing super under a hold once she got some clear air in the straight - past the line she was 1-2L in front and continuing on with it - interesting debut prep, with her first two runs over 1000m and 900m before going to 1400m when 5.5L off Fangirl and only 3L off Decent Raine… which is really good form for a maiden - lovely first trial.
Feb 28 (Warwick Farm (Synthetic)) - superb, she is flying - won by 7.78L in the second fastest 740m time of the morning - straight to the front under a strong hold from Tommy Berry and gave nothing else a chance, super trial - super keen to follow her into her first up run.
Warrnambool, Race 2 - JAJA DING DONG
Hard to make any excuses at all for the poor debut run - he looked to get a lovely run throughout but was very disappointing. He was vetted pre-race, so it wasn't perfect.
In saying that, if he was $51 here on debut on the back of those jump outs, he'd be a certain bet and we've often seen our runners win second up at big prices after poor debut runs (e.g. Seven'o'Kevin). At $51, happy to have $10 on to see if those jump outs were 'flukes' or if he genuinely had excuses on debut.
Canberra, Race 4 - I AM ME
This looks a race where I AM ME simply should win. Her trials have been absolutely superb and her form reads really well too... ratings wise, she ran +1.8 behind Smirnova and +0.7 behind Fangirl where both of those ratings would be the best last start ratings of this race and a repeat of either of those runs has her very hard to beat here. Barrier 5 and Tommy Berry on board after riding her in her latest massive trial win, she looks very well placed.
She's into $1.55-$1.60 now race morning, which looks the right price and while she should just win this, not keen to get involved at that price. Monitor where she gets to closer to the jump, if we can get $1.80+ or so, then will be happy to have a 3-unit bet. Race is at 2:53pm, so check just before the jump.
UPDATE (2:40pm): playing SP, she should just be winning this.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 0.10 units.
Warrnambool, Race 2
JAJA DING DONG ~ 0.10 units WIN @ $51.00 (TopSport)
Canberra, Race 4
I AM ME ~ 3.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +2.15 units at Recommend Price | +38.87 units at Betfair SP
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