BlackBook - Monday, 13 March 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 13 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
WARRNAMBOOL - Race 3
We had #5 GAMADALE NIP in the BlackBook prior to the debut where he was smashed into a $2.20 SP favourite but managed to find one better on the day, finishing a distant 2.75L 2nd with a decent 4L gap back to 3rd. He was immediately tipped out, returning in Heat 12 on Feb 9 where he cruised to the line into 2nd place and looks to have returned nicely. One to watch into another jump out.
WARRNAMBOOL - Race 5
#3 MATTHEW MARK was super in Heat 13 on Feb 27. He was slowly away and as a result settled at the rear of the field where he cruised along the inside before there was no gap along the rail and forced him to have to come off heels and out towards the middle of the track, which is where he did his best work, closing really nicely to make up 3-4L quite quickly and clearly doing his best work past the line. Expect we’ll get a price for this 4yo gelding on debut as he is with a very small stable, but love the way he attacked the line so he could run well on debut on the back of this.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Warrnambool, Race 3
#5 GAMADALE NIP (5) - P Preusker
He’s only had the 1x JO ahead of his return but it was a super one and we know he was well supported on debut last year at Donald when 2nd, given plenty of time since that run and that 1x JO has him looking in super order. Wouldn’t expect Dean Yendall to be mucking around from barrier 4, pushing forward to either lead or sit just off the leader (who is likely Writtenbyalady) and think he’s the one that will strike late.
He’s the one to beat for us and we’ve got him on top so going to bet accordingly - ½ now and ½ late/SP.
Warrnambool, Race 5
#3 MATTHEW MARK (9) - C Graesser
Hard to have a stack of confidence here but thought this gelding's latest JO was super and he debuts at the home track, which is a big positive and this race isn't anything special.
Distance has changed from 1400m to 1200m, so not sure how that will affect him but still, he's $10+ still this morning and liked his JO's so we'll still bet.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Warrnambool, Race 3
#10 WRITTENBYALADY (7) - A Noblet
BlackBook jump out comments:
Another speedy jump out from WRITTENBYALADY after leading from start to finish in a Feb 27 jump out, it was much of the same in Heat 10 on Mar 8 as the 4yo mare went straight to the front and led from start to finish again. She’s showing a stack of speed this prep for a mare with 3x career starts that have seen two of them come over 1500m, so she might be a lot more forward this prep and can run a race first up.
Prefer to be with GAMADALE NIP here, but she could be worth a saver as she will lead but also think she needs 1000m.
Last Updated: 8:40am AEDT on Monday, 12th March 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):