BlackBook - Monday, 13 June 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 13 June 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY


MORNINGTON - Race 1

#11 HYPOTHETICAL (14) - A & S Freedman

The un-raced HYPOTHETICAL went toe-to-toe with ex-stablemate Tea Master throughout Heat 15 on May 18, but it was the 3yo filly getting up over the concluding stages to win the heat in 49.55s, the fastest time of the morning and comfortably above the days average of 50.88s. They’ve given this filly plenty of time, we last saw her finishing 3rd in an Oct 21 jump out back in 2021 and she looked nice there too. She was a $310k purchase back in 2020 form the Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale, so connections will certainly be hoping she can live up to the price tag and this return jump out suggests she’s going in the right direction. Big watch, most likely another jump out prior to the debut.


HYPOTHETICAL is a must follow into her debut now. We mentioned her after her first jump out last week where she won over 750m on May 18 in the fastest time of the morning, defeating ex-stablemate (and previous winner) Tea Master. We also noted that she jumped out back on Oct 21 in 2021 having been a $310k purchase from the Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale, but her most impressive bit of work was her 4L+ win in Heat 9 on May 25. She showed great gate speed, put herself on the speed and absorbed the speed from around her as she sat there under a hold before cruising away from them with ease. She was a class above this lot and she looks as though she’ll be hard to beat on debut.

OTHER

Lovely return from #8 MASTERFUL, closing superbly in the straight to finish a very close Heat 9 on May 23. He’s got some nice form from his debut prep where he finished 4th, 3rd and 3rd. On debut he finished just behind Rose Tycoon who won impressively earlier today at Ballarat, while second up he finished 3rd to Squid Game (who then won a BM70 next start) and Treporti (won a MDN next start and a BM64 two starts later). Third up he finished 3rd to Lucky Decision (who is now 2x Group 2 placed) and the consistent Endlessly. That form should be enough to stack up in most maidens and this was a very encouraging jump out return.


MORNINGTON - Race 3

OTHER

A smart win for the returning #3 WOLFLANDS, winning with ease in Heat 12 on May 16 over the 800m whilst clocking 47s, slightly above the days average of 47.02s. He won well on debut on a Heavy10 track at Cranbourne where he defeated Hesket, who then ran 2nd and 1st in MDN’s followed by 1st in a BM64. He’s been given more time and can certainly go well again in his second career prep.


MORNINGTON - Race 8

OTHER

#16 BARONESSA was disappointing first up when 5th of 10 on the Pakenham Synthetic over 1000m, heading back to the jump outs to win Heat 1 on June 8 by a big margin although she did clock the slowest of the 3x heats. Wonder if she didn’t handle the 63kg first up and would be better suited in a BM64 with less weight? She did win a BM64 over 1009m at Yarra Valley last preparation.

 
BLACKBOOK SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Mornington, Race 1

#8 MASTERFUL (9) - J Sandhu

Low/Medium.

Would've been keen in any other maiden but off the 1x JO, he's going to run into a smart filly - look to save on him to breakeven.

#11 HYPOTHETICAL (14) - A & S Freedman

​High.

Have been keen on this filly for a while, she's been nommed for plenty of races over the last 2 weeks and landed on this MDN which is worth $60k. Expecting a big debut.

Mornington, Race 3

#3 WOLFLANDS (14) - J Welsh

​Medium.

Bolted in on debut over 1200m on a Heavy10 track - gets a similar set up here, albeit a tougher race, but expect him to go well.

Mornington, Race 8

#11 ELITE LEGACY (9) - T Noonan

Low/Medium.

We had him listed prior to his first up run at Flemington - he's now second up (8: 2-0-2) and at the home track - his JO's were super, he's worth a small bet at $26.

#16 BARONESSA (17) - S Stockdale

Low/Medium.

Surprised she's running here, but happy to have a small very low confidence bet at the ~$61.

Last Updated: 10:22am on Monday, 13th June 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

664x runners | 199x winners (30%) & 209x placings (61%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.32 WIN $2.31 PLC


'Other' Runners:

836x runners | 187x winners (22%) & 229x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $13.05 WIN $3.12 PLC


Recommend having a read of the below from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.


NOTES

Confidence levels will be as follows:

  • Low = not keen to bet.

  • Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).

  • Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.

  • High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.

  • Special = very keen, should be winning.

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