Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 12 June 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MORNINGTON - Race 2
OTHER
Despite the slow time, VON HAUKE was an easy winner of Heat 23 on Jun 5 by 1.5L, cruising to the line over the 1000m. He just cruised out the back in his return jump out on May 24, which was similar here as he sat out the back but this time in he really showed that late turn of foot. Having been unsuccessful in winning the Pakenham Future Star series, he certainly has a regular maiden win in him this prep.
NITROGEN was squeezed/checked in the early stages of his debut that forced him to settle last and while he finished 6th, the performance was a lot better than that suggests as he clocked the meetings second fastest L400m and fifth fastest L200m. This wasn’t the case in Heat 6 on May 26, jumping cleanly to lead here and then kicking away around the bend to record quite an easy victory in the end. It looked as though the blinkers went on as well here so look for that gear change that will spark even more improvement so keeping a close eye on this gelding second up.
TELEGRAM CHAT
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. If you want to be apart of the chat with everyone, join our "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link:
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Mornington, Race 2 | Backing both VON HAUKE and NITROGREN for even returns. |
#6 VON HAUKE (2) - C Brown | Medium. He's the best horse in this race and if he runs to any of his first three career runs, he'll be hard to beat here. The worry is where he gets to from barrier 3 as he isn't one that sits on pace but as long as Ben Allen isn't completely negative out the gate and has him last, he should be there abouts and charging late. D Oliver coming for one ride on Exposay is always a worry and thought Metrical was the other danger but looks to need further so was happy to risk. Backing him, he's the one to beat, but playing late/SP. |
#16 NITROGEN (8) - J Cummings | Low. His debut was actually after having to settle last. He'll take plenty of improvement from that run and gets the blinkers on here second up. Think he's over the odds and can run a solid race - he looks more a place chance but at the price, have to have something on him as well. |
Last Updated: 9:01am AEDT on Monday, 12th June 2023.
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
Comentários