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BlackBook - Monday, 10 July 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 10 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


DONALD - Race 3

Ignore FLY LIE’s debut run, he finished 9th of 11 where he was held up almost the entire straight (500m to 150m as per stewards report) and went to the line untouched. He’s a get back and run on horse, which is going to be a bit of a query first up in terms of the map but he’s now had the four jump outs where he’s moved really well and done his best work late in all of them, especially his latest over 1000m in Heat 8 on Jul 3. He was ridden with no urgency early, dropped out to the back a good 7L+ off the leaders and then cruised to the line in the straight. Have a look for him flying home late first up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Donald, Race 3

#2 FLY LIE (8) - M Freedman

Low/Medium.

His debut was completely luckless and he’s been given time, jumping out super prior to this. Like the 1350m kick off point but am worried about his racing pattern as he will get back and look to run on, which is a low percentage play.


Pre-scratchings, thought he was more of an E/W chance than a winning chance but a fair few have come out and his price hasn't moved much from the ~$6.

Expecting him to run top 3 at worst so at the price, happy to bet.

Last Updated: 7:48am AEDT on Monday, 10th July 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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