BlackBook - Monday, 1 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 1 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


BALLARAT - Race 1

#9 SISTINE EXPLORER (8) - A Noblet

SISTINE EXPLORER won’t be a maiden for long, based on form and her return jump out win in Heat 8 on Oct 25. She has some really nice form on the board too, with a debut 2nd at Geelong and a 4th up the straight at Flemington where she was only 3.5L off Argentia and only 1.25L off Invincible Caviar. That sort of form will hold up in almost any maiden and her win in this jump out shows she’s come back in super order, leading from start to finish under a strong hold with the most impressive bit of the trail the final 50m or so where she pulled away despite those around her being pushed out. Past the line, she was in front by a massive margin! She’s talented, keen to follow into her resumption.


#11 WHYWHYWHYDELILAH (11) - D O'Brien

There was something about the way WHYWHYWHYDELILAH moved in Heat 8 on Sep 23 that caught the eye. The un-raced 3yo filly finished alongside better than maiden grade gallopers and looked to have a nice action about her. She won a Sep 17 synthetic jump out prior to this. Think she’s one to keep in mind.


We mentioned that we liked the way WHYWHYWHYDELILAH moved in Sep 23 jump out following a Sep 17 synthetic jump out, with the 3yo filly again jumping out well in Heat 1 on Oct 15 where only the talented Yulong Command beat her and they clocked the second fastest time of the morning. They also spaced Sound and Mahamedeis in the process. Very keen to follow her into her debut, she is flying and think she will go very close on debut (if she goes to a maiden).


BALLARAT - Race 2

#7 MISS CUMBERLAND (9) - B Cross

Following her Sep 15 win, the 4yo MISS CUMBERLAND went straight to the front in Heat 8 on Oct 5 and was way too speedy when recording a victory by a couple lengths. Looked as though they were making ground on her a bit late, albeit ridden out more than she was, which is slightly concerning but she did this in nice enough time and look to hit the line with a bit of pace. Not completely convinced, but want to have her noted down to keep in mind on debut - could be a play at big odds.


Can’t ignore the wins of MISS CUMBERLAND, recording three several length wins on Sep 15, Oct 5 and now in Heat 18 on Oct 19. She has some nice early speed, taking up the lead in all of her jump outs so expect race day to be no different but we’ll need to be mindful that she might just be one of those jump and run types that tire late. In saying that, she didn’t look to tire late here and the 3x jump outs should have her ready to go on debut. She’s worth following, can’t ignore these jump out wins and if she brings this to her debut, she’ll run well.


OTHER

#11 FOR REAL LIFE travelled wide and quietly out the back in an Oct 1 jump out against more experienced horses, but took a different approach in Heat 4 on Oct 15 as she went to the front to lead and then extended away in the straight to win quite comfortably in the end but in slowish time for the day. She looked to move well enough though once she was asked to extend and open up and it certainly won’t shock to see her run alright upon resumption.

#12 SPEED LOVER had a quiet first jump out, but was way too speedy for them in Heat 6 on Sep 15 as she jumped straight to the front along the rail and led from start to finish in slick time, the second fastest of the morning. She was never asked for an effort here and did it quite easy in the end. She was a $160k purchase at the MM Perth Yearling Sales. Nice jump out, certainly want to see where she goes on debut.


BALLARAT - Race 3

OTHER

We wanted to watch #1 GOT THE STYLE after a Sep 2 jump out, but very happy to say she has talent and will be very competitive on debut after a super win in Heat 5 on Sep 15 in the fastest time of the morning. The 4yo mare jumped beautifully here, went straight to the lead and never looked like being beat as she won by a good margin. She looks to be a slick mover, being by Snitzel and a half-sister to the Group 1 placed (and Group 2 winning) mare Xilong. Keen to follow.


BALLARAT - Race 5

OTHER

Form wise, #8 FRANKIE TWO ANGLES is going to need to improve quite a bit but we can’t ignore his 4.5L win in Heat 11 on Oct 20 as he switches to the Gavin Bedggood stable following a 3-week freshen up after three runs this preparation. He sat in the back half of the field out wide here before being whipped around the field and pushed out but really responding to find lengths on the field. No blinkers on that he’s been wearing, expect a BM58 first up and maybe one at a price.


#6 YULONG SOVEREIGN certainly looks to be back, pulling up with an irregular heart rhythm in his last start and put away immediately. Prior to that run last prep he won well first up when resuming gelded, and after his slick win in Heat 13 on Oct 19 over 800m in nice time, he can resume in a winning way again this preparation.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Ballarat, Race 1 - SISTINE EXPLORER & WHYWHYWHYDELILAH

This looks a race between three for us. Our two runners and NICE FOR WHAT who drops back to maiden grade now - expecting one of those three to win.


WHYWHYWHYDELILAH has some nice jump out form now with Yulong Command since winning a BM78 at Moonee Valley by 1L. That should more than stack up in a maiden but she has drawn barrier 11 of 11, which isn't ideal.

SISTINE EXPLORER's jump out was super and will certainly stack up here along with her form from her debut prep.


Ratings wise, SISTINE EXPLORER brings in the best last start benchmark rating at -0.2 with NICE FOR WHAT with the second best at +1.0 with a big gap to the third best. These two should be a class above this field and we expect WHYWHYWHYDELILAH to also be quite classy.


WHYWHYWHYDELILAH opened $11 on TAB for those that were quick, now into ~$3.70 race morning. Know a few are on at that price so if so, look to save on SISTINE EXPLORER to break even.


As for those not already on, we're going to play WHYWHYWHYDELILAH and save on SISTINE EXPLORER to breakeven and go against NICE FOR WHAT, backing in our #BlackBook runners. Think WHYWHYWHYDELILAH might be really smart and think she can go really well here. Total outlay will be 4.00 units, being a high confidence bet overall.


Ballarat, Race 2 - MISS CUMBERLAND (+ FOR REAL LIFE & SPEED LOVER)

SPEED LOVER led on debut but was just overran late, but she did have a big gap between her latest jump out and that debut run. She'll be much improved here second up but barrier 12 of 12 doesn't suit her go forward and lead racing pattern.


FOR REAL LIFE has been scratched a few times and pops up again here. She brings in the best last start benchmark rating at +4.5 while SPEED LOVER brings in the second best at +6.3 and then a big gap to the third best at +12.1.


MISS CUMBERLAND has been jumping out super but it will take a nice performance to knock off one of the other two on debut, especially being from a smaller stable.


Another one that is too hard to split at the prices. SPEED LOVER is going to be hard to beat but we don't want to dive into $1.85 with FOR REAL LIFE and MISS CUMBERLAND in the race as well. Going to have to sit this one out with no bets - expect one of these three runners to win though.


Ballarat, Race 3 - GOT THE STYLE

GOT THE STYLE will appreciate getting back to a dry track and stepping up from 1000m to 1200m. She started $2.40 that day, so there was some market expectation and with her drawing in here with barrier 3, she can take a more prominent early position and run well. It didn't look like she had a real lot go her way on debut either, getting bumped a few times and having to race in behind the speed, but she did have every chance to come home late.


Ratings wise, she rated +7.9, which is the third best last start benchmark rating coming into this behind TEMPEST CHARM at +2.1 and PERFECT LEGACY at +6.7 (she was $26 that day). TEMPEST CHARM has jumped out okay ahead of her return.


Back to the home track and a dry track, we're expecting a better performance here and think the $6+ is a very generous quote. Dean Holland on board for McEvoy is a profitable combination - happy to have a medium confidence play on her.


Ballarat, Race 5 - FRANKIE TWO ANGELS & YULONG SOVEREIGN

If he runs to his best, he can run alright here but the big question mark is whether or not he is at his best. Would've much preferred a BM58 over a BM64 and he is a bit hard to trust with 1 win and 1 placing from 11 starts. We'll let him go around without any bets unless he gets out to a big $15+ price late (but very highly doubt that happens).


If YULONG SOVEREIGN runs to his first up run last preparation, he can go close here. Just a query on whether he's back to his best and certainly would've liked to see Dean Holland on for the McEvoy's. Prefer to see it on race day as he's had the 3 career starts with 2 poor runs and 1 really good run.


No bets here.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 5.00 units.


Ballarat, Race 1

WHYWHYWHYDELILAH ~ 2.25 units WIN @ $3.80 (Bet365 at 8:54am)

SISTINE EXPLORER ~ 1.75 units WIN @ $2.35 (TopSport at 8:54am)


Ballarat, Race 3

GOT THE STYLE ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $6.00 (Bet365 at 8:43am)


Overall: - 8.26 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).

- we're well overdue some winners... had a lot of overs recently for only placings.


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