Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Monday, 1 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
PAKENHAM - Race 4
#1 BOLD INTENTIONS was $7 on debut yet was very disappointing, finishing 8th of 9 when beaten by 11L but he did pull up with a slow recovery and was subsequently spelled. He returned to win a 600m Geelong jump out on Jun 22 prior to finishing 2nd in Heat 12 on Jul 15 to Glamour And Glory when clocking the fastest time of the morning. These two runners went toe-to-toe throughout this heat, neither giving an inch which bodes well for this gelding who’s still a maiden. Keeping a close eye on him.
#10 TYPHOON TITMUS will certainly have a maiden win in her. After finishing 2nd in an official trail at Tatura on Jul 18 ahead of subsequent winner Castillian, the 2yo filly came out and won Heat 11 on Jul 25 as she ran over the top of previous maiden winner Soju Session over the concluding stages. She travelled beautifully just off the leader here and responded when asked to extend in the straight, a real encouraging performance. Having had 2x jump out wins in a previous campaign, connections have been patient with her and as a $200k buy and a half-sister to Hokolesqua, they’ll be hoping she can capitalise on some nice track work and bring it to raceday.
PAKENHAM - Race 5
Loved the work of #5 FAR ENOUGH after his Jun 22 jump out win and loved his work in Heat 1 on Jul 4 when 2nd to Invincible Jet (resuming off a 10-week let up) who clocked the fastest time of the morning at 46.65s (vs days average of 47.39s). In 3rd place was Veranskova, who he had covered by 2L quite comfortably and was going on with it past the line. Hoping he resumes in a BM58 to get an easy kill.
Confidence - Comments
Pakenham, Race 4
#1 BOLD INTENTIONS (6) - L & T Corstens
Saver for our bet on Typhoon Titmus (below).
#10 TYPHOON TITMUS (5) - R Griffiths & M de Kock
Trials and JO's have been super and we're happy to take on the Peter Moody favourite. Backing her here, expecting a nice run.
Pakenham, Race 5
#5 FAR ENOUGH (3) - D Short
This is easily the easiest race he's ran in since his debut and while he's had a long-ish break, his JO's have been super. His latest was behind Invincible Jet, who ran 2nd in a BM70 at The Valley on Saturday. He's usually slow to begin, but expect him to then push forward from barrier 3 and he should be winning this (if he can't, he's going to be hard to trust going forward).
Last Updated: 8:20am on Monday, 1st August 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
670x runners | 202x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.30 PLC
920x runners | 203x winners (22%) & 255x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.84 WIN $3.11 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):